You're Packed!

I often go on about Packing because I find it very useful and informative. The correlation between good packing scores and overall value of the player is quite strong in my opinion although I haven’t substantiated that assertion.

As passing accounts for 75%+ of on ball events, and packing is primarily concerned with attributing value to forward passes for both giver and receiver, this should make intuitive sense.

Ok, so I’m an advocate!

A wee aside. I spent formative years living in Somerset. I don’t recommend it. Especially if you are between 13 and 19 years old! Anyway, within those environs, the vernacular for describing when a boy or girl had decided they didn’t want to “see” you anymore was that you had been “packed”. So being dumped, finished with, jilted, forsaken, cast aside or otherwise relinquished was being packed.

Lovely.

And apposite.

One aspect of Packing I have not really covered before is the negative side of the opponents playing forward through Celtic. Which players have been taken out the game with opponents forward passes? Who has been packed?

What we need to bear in mind increasingly in all data driven analysis of this Celtic side under Ange Postecoglou is to consider the specifics of the players role in the system versus their individual style in terms of impacts on the numbers.

This is because the system is such a strong and coherent one. It is too simple to say players are interchangeable, but there is a homogeneity of purpose and intent no matter who is on the field.

Hold those thoughts.

Centre Backs

Centre backs should be packed the least. They are the last line of defence especially in the central areas.

Within the Postecoglou system they are often asked to go man to man as that last line as the full backs rampage forwards. Being bypassed in that scenario would be pretty disastrous.

And indeed the numbers are very low with Mortiz Jenz being an outlier – and he is no longer in the squad.

Last season the numbers were:

Cameron Carter-Vickers – 1.2

Carl Starfelt – 1.84

Stephen Welsh – 2.5

So, Carter-Vickers and Starfelt have improved and Welsh barely features anymore.

I’m being simplistic on this one metric but I’d be stunned if this isn’t a factor.

Being packed is a proxy for (lack of) positioning, recovery, anticipation. All are important centre back traits.

Full Backs

Less homogeneity amongst the full back clan.

Anthony Ralston is by far the least packed of those. He is probably the least mobile with the slowest recovery pace. He may not be encouraged to get forward as much as the other although we know he can do so to thrilling effect.

At the other end of the scale is Alexandro Bernabei. This is one of his Achilles heels along with the volume of times he turns the ball over – these two data points are not unconnected.

Greg Taylor and Josip Juranovic were very similar with the Croats high end recovery pace perhaps accounting for his slightly lower number.

Alistair Johnston is marginal lower still and his data trends more like a true “defender” than a rampaging wing back – more on this later in the week.

So, some differentiation here and most simplistically, this helps explain why at the moment you’d pick Taylor over Bernabei.

Midfield

Callum McGregor is the clear outlier but he played a much more defensive orientated role within the team, so this is expected.

What is startling is the level of similarity across the “number 8s”. There are tiny differences between them such that if I took a snapshot after the next match the order may change even if the data similarities remain.

We would all agree that these are four very different players with different strengths and weaknesses. Yet, systemically, playing in this position for Celtic results in you being packed the same number of times.

Last season the numbers were lower across this group (average around 20 rather than 23) and Reo Hatate’s was more similar to McGregor’s (15). This reflects what Hatate said in a recent interview that last season he was more a double pivot with McGregor whereas this, he is encouraged further forward.

Most interestingly for me is that increased packed rate amongst the midfield despite evidence of greater coherence and clearly consistent on field success. This is active risk management in action. There is a level of being packed the management are comfortable with and is baked in as a cost of the attacking impetus elsewhere.

The similarities in the packed rates suggest the strength of the midfield shape and system using these players.

Forwards

We see a degree of difference across the forward line.

Firstly, at striker, Kyogo Furuhashi is getting packed a lot less than Giorgos Giakoumakis was. Giakoumakis was a warrior in may respects but Kyogo is probably fleeter of foot in getting goal side.

Of the wingers, Daizen Maeda gets packed the most. This may be due to his hyper aggressive pressing. The downside to this is that it can be easy to bypass if the opposition are well positioned.

The other attacking wide players have broadly similar numbers which again points to uniformity of system requirements irrespective of personnel. Nice though that Jota belies lazy stereotyping based on luxurious hair and good looks to have a relatively low packed score – he works hard to get goal side.

Again, last season, the average across this group would have been around 18 whilst now it is nearer 30.

It suggests greater risk taking, but we can see the rewards.

Summary

Analysing how often someone is packed within this Celtic team is only instructive about the individual when they stray outside the norms for their position. Bernabei being the most obvious example.

Otherwise, what we find Is that Celtic players are being packed far more this season that last as regards the midfield and forward areas. And that their numbers by position are very similar unless they have specific pressing roles i.e. Maeda.

Celtic are accepting a level of risk of being played through to a greater extent. The quid pro quo to this is more aggressive pressing and committing more bodies to attacking moves – this is how Celtic have essentially defeated the default 5-4-1 SPFL low block.

Sometimes, worse data in one respect is actually a result of calculated effort to improve other aspects of performance.