Wobbling Hibernian Next for Controlling Celts

Celtic’s opening SPFL fixture round concludes away to a Hibernian. They are a 4^th side that would likely form the top 6 come next Spring. Which probably makes the post-split fixture shenanigans more, err, shenanigany.

Unbeaten until 3 matches ago, the Edinburgh side sit 5^th, 4 points behind Celtic.

An impressive start to the campaign has receded badly with defeats at Ibrox and Pittodrie bookmarking a 0-3 reverse at home to Dundee United, this seasons xG Against over achievers (0.6 goals against vs 1.22 xG Against).

What can a newly controlling and relentless Celtic expect?

Attacking Threat

Based on attacking data, Hibernian are performing like the 4^th best team in the league.

A selection of metrics illustrates:

Shot accuracy seems to be the biggest issue. They rank 7^th for Shots on Target and 6^th for forcing the opposition ‘keeper to make saves.

Celtic rank 1^st for all these metrics EXCEPT Shots in the Box (The Rangers lead that one 13.1 to 12.8) and, less surprisingly, xG from Set pieces (Celtic’s 0.53 per game is 4^th highest in the league with Hibernian 5^th).

Those 3 defeats in a row have yielded a TOTAL xG of 0.76 which must be a concern. Albeit one of those matches saw them play at Ibrox for most of the game with 10 men.

Top scorer Boyle has 6 goals from 4.53 xG with Nisbet, Magennis and Doidge on 2 each. Magennis is second behind Boyle on 1.85 xG as it appears Nisbet struggles to find last season’s form.

Creativity

Whilst 4^th on shot quality, Hibernian rank roughly 5^th on creative metrics.

Hibernian are creating more chances than most on the league but few of them are characterised as “Big Chances” – Opta definition.

There is also evidence they have become a more direct side, something usually associated with their Edinburgh rivals. This season Hibernian play more long balls that Hearts and complete them more successfully than most. They are also heavy on crosses, but as per their overall creative profile, only rank 5^th in successful crosses whilst 3^rd on attempted crosses.

Their wing backs, Doig and Cadden, have 1 assist each but only average 0.06 xA per 90m. With Boyle playing more central their creativity from wide seems severely blunted which is where Celtic’s weak spots are.

No one in the squad has an xA rate above 0.2 and this lack of creativity runs through the squad. Ex Celt Scott Allan has been used sparingly and midfield scheming is left to Newell, Magennis and Doyle-Hayes none of whom are noted assist machines.

Defending

Although Hibernian have had 4 Clean Sheets, they have conceded 12 in the other 6 matches.

However, their underlying defensive data hints at the 4^th best team in the league once more.

In particular, their xG Against at 0.93 is the 3^rd lowest n the league. In particular they are 3^rd best restricting xG from Open Play (0.67) and 2^nd best from set pieces (0.26). The average xG per shot they face is the 3^rd best at 0.09.

But they do concede the 7^th most shots from outside the box (4.7) which will alert Turnbull. And they are ranked 7^th on Average Number of Chances created against (10.4) and 7^th on giving up Big Chances (1.1).

Transitioning to a back 3 of McGinn, Hanlon and Porteous has given Hibernian a bit of solidity certainly but they are not what you’d call spectacular in defence.

Summary

Hibernian profile like a team that will finish a solid 4^th in the table. Meaning this will be a tricky away day for Celtic. Moving to a 3 5 2 / 3 4 1 2 shape has made Hibernian more difficult to play against but has blunted their wide creativity and the extra centre back has contributed to a more direct, less possession-based style.

Their attacking weaknesses (lacking physicality up front and creativity from wide) plays well to Celtic’s main weaknesses (the full back areas and defending high balls in the centre).

I would be hopeful Celtic can keep a clean sheet and show the patience and persistence needed to break down Ferencvaros and St Johnstone bringing another solid win.