Who Has Striking Edge In Title Race?

As the title race reaches the final laps, let’s look at the comparative creative and goal threat across the squads to see who may have the firepower to secure the crown.

I have used Opta data for this analysis and it relates only the SPFL Premier matches.

The method will be to compare each position as regards the Actual versus Expected Assists and Goals performances so far and assess which squad has the upper hand.

Each graph has a red line denoting where Expected Assists and Goals = Actual Assists and Goals, per 90m.

SC = Scoring Contribution = Assists + Goals per 90m

xSC = Expected Scoring Contribution = xA + xG per 90m

Full Backs

No competition you would think as the Ibrox side have the Blue Cafu, goal-machine Tavernier (pen).

And indeed, his output is terrific for a full back.

With 7 goals and 10 assists already in the league, the right back has a record most attacking players would be proud of.

Conveniently, both clubs’ penalty takers are full backs.

Celtic’s designated penalty, Juranovic, has two successes whilst 6 of Tavernier’s goals have penalties. If we remove penalties from the analysis (remember: a penalty has a 0.79 chance of success irrespective of the taker) then Juranovic’s actual and expected contributions fall away to almost nothing, and Tavernier, remarkably, falls behind the Bellshill Brickie himself – Ralston!

Even then, both right backs are overperforming versus their Expected Assists and Goals so we might see some mean reversion.

Will Ralston remain the first pick with Juranovic moving to the left? The attacking stats suggest so.

For The Rangers, I am sure the never-ending diet of penalties will continue, but they need more from Barisic whose form has dipped dramatically this season.

VERDICT – The Rangers just have the edge given the penalty count no doubt to come.

Centre Backs

Light on assists, all teams still need their big lads to chip in with some set piece goals.

Neither side are blessed with real goal threats from the back line.

With Jullien out long term injured and little sign he will force his way back into the side, Celtic look likely to see out the season with Carter- Vickers and Starfelt. Both barely 6 feet tall, neither pose a great aerial threat. Also, given Celtic do not contain much height as a side, corners and free kicks tend to be taken short to keep possession and earn a better-quality chance. Celtic’s output from the back will likely not improve.

The Rangers are noted for their set piece efficiency but Goldson’s two goals is all they have to show for it.

Helander is a bit of an outlier but this is a very small sample (just over 300 minutes) and represents 1 goal.

VERDICT – Celtic’s goal output won’t improve whilst The Rangers should get a few more from their backs. The Rangers have the edge here.

Midfielders

Now we get into the more productive players, the midfielders. With an emphasis on creating.

Here we see Rogic having a tremendous season with nearly 0.8 goals and assists per 90m only slightly more than expected.

And O’Riley has made a great start too but as we saw against FK Bodo/Glimt, it is unlikely both will start in many matches.

Celtic’s Turnbull, still out injured, has been productive but is underperforming his xSC significantly.

A cautionary note on Hatate. No player has such a disparity between actual and expected scoring contributions (0.91 to 0.25). Scoring 3 long range goals will do that. Expect some pretty sharpish reversion to the mean.

For the Ibrox side, we see Arfield having a terrific season given he is not noted for high assist and goal rates historically. At 33, he is has managed 4 league goals in only 1042 minutes but the data suggests he can improve on that.

Aribo, who has arguably been their best player, is around the 0.5 goals and assists per 90m mark. His main strength is ball carrying and ball recovery though. 7 goals and 5 assists already means he is likely to have his most productive season ever.

The remaining midfielders from both sides are much of a muchness in terms of goal threat and creativity. Whether it is McGregor or Bitton on one side, or Lundstram, Davis or Kamara on the other, you are getting no more than 0.2 goals + assists per 90m.

VERDICT – Celtic have the X factor in Rogic and now O’Riley. If Turnbull comes back too, Celtic can expect to exceed their rivals’ goal threat from the midfield areas. Unless Ramsey shows his World Class, of course.

Wingers

The modern wide player is expected to score as well as create. A lone striker means the wingers is both forward and wide provider.

Here’s how they current crop stack up:

A very interesting picture this one.

For the Blues, Kent’s underperformance has been a feature of the season – excellent at ball carrying, but end product lacking. He has only 2 goals in the SPFL to go with 7 assists. And this is overperformance versus Expected!

In terms of support, Hagi was not terribly productive and is now out for the season whilst Wright is very much the back up.

Huddle Breakdown colleague @jucojames has been suggesting all season they should play Sakala more and the numbers bear this out. He has 6 goals but only 866 minutes played and seems a bench option under Van Bronckhorst. Diallo is not included due to minimal minutes.

For Celtic, the new pairing of Abada and Jota are leading the way. Abada with 9 goals and 8 assists in the league is still underperforming versus expected.

Jota has made the left-hand side place his own.

Where Celtic are struggling is maybe in wide cover with Forrest better than his numbers but struggling with fitness.

VERDICT – Celtic’s form pair are way ahead of the opposition. So long as they stay fit and The Rangers continue to bench Sakala, Celtic look to get a lot more productivity from the wide areas.

Strikers

I’ve ran out of fingers and toes for the number of big clubs and squillions in transfer fees Morelos is allegedly worth according to the Daily Record, so we can expect him to be way ahead on the striker’s chart?

And Morelos is indeed having another productive season with 11 goals and 7 assists in the SPFL. His xG of 15.76 is also the highest in the league. So, credit where it is due.

After Morelos though, Itten has 130 minutes and Roofe the lowest Scoring Contribution of the strikers although his xSC is not far off Morelos.

Had Furuhashi been able to convert some more if his chances he’d likely be level at least with the Colombian. The Japanese has a big disparity between actual and expected. Will he return to close the gap?

Encouragingly for Celtic it looks like Giakoumakis and Maeda will be able to provide decent cover. The big Greek in particular, now he has his first hattrick, may close the gap between expected and actual over the next few weeks.

VERDICT – If Morelos can continue his good form under the new management, he can be a difference maker but he does need a lot of chances to score. Furuhashi is more clinical and Celtic’s back up looks stronger. It’s tight but Celtic shade it.

Conclusion

This has been a light hearted look at the scoring potential of the different components of the top two.

Celtic clearly lack in goals from the back and penalty machine Tavernier is peerless at the 12-yard finish.

But the Hoops seem to have more firepower both in the midfield and wide areas whilst upfront it is very close to call.

Overall then, Celtic should be optimistic they can outscore their opponents over the remaining games.

Hopefully!