When 100% Completion Tells You Nothing
Good to see Neil Cameron in the Herald today using passing stats in an article on Gordon.
I will admit I didn’t read the article as it is behind a pay wall but the basis of it seems to be that he has 0 incomplete passes in more than one game this season.
In fact, he has 100% open play pass completion in 4 matches:
14-Sep-18 League A St Mirren 20-Sep-18 Europa League H BK Rosenborg 31-Oct-18 League A Dundee 24-Nov-18 League A Hamilton Academical
Apparently, this was also achieved against Kilmarnock, but as I have not captured the data for that yet I cannot verify.
It should be noted he gave the ball away from a set play in two of those matches – St Mirren and Rosenborg.
It is not that rare an occurrence. Last season Gordon achieved 100% open play pass completion in 6 matches. In 2 of those he gave 1 pass away from a set play.
The opposition he achieved this against includes the same opposition as above in Dundee, Hamilton Academical and Kilmarnock plus the two games against Linfield. Bain did not give away an open play pass against Kilmarnock or Hamilton Academical last season either.
What this tells us is that the manifestation of 100% pass completion says more about opposition style that individual player ability. The goalkeeper and centre backs should have the highest pass completion as they are the furthest from the opposition goal. Now some teams like a high press and to put pressure on the goalkeeper from restarts with the objective of recovering the ball around half way from a wayward, forced long punt. Gordon’s worst numbers for incomplete passes have come away to Heart of Midlothian and home to RB Leipzig who both pressed high. But teams that sit back into a low or medium block and do not press before the half way line will allow the opposition to play out from the back to that point with little harassment.
When we look beyond the goalkeepers, we see that last season:
Boyata achieved this feat 3 times (against Ross County, Brechin City and Dundee)
Simunovic achieved it against Partick Thistle and Zenit St Petersburg away (outlier alert!)
Hendry achieved it against Ross County
Brown achieved it 4 times (versus St Johnstone, Motherwell in the League Cup Final, Anderlecht and Hibernian)
This season:
Boyata achieved this away in Rosenborg
Benkovic has done it twice – on his debut at St Mirren and away at Dundee
So, it really is a matter of (opposition) style over substance in explaining this phenomenon.
Back to Gordon.
His passing data for this season compared to last is:
This shows us that his passing has actually deteriorated compared to last season. He completes fewer passes per 90m and with less accuracy. Also, his is completing fewer forward passes that take out opponents (Pack Passes). However, he is on track to match or exceed the number of matches he completes 100% passes.
Achieving 100% passing is a good looking stat but unfortunately is says more about your opponent than it does about you and tells you nothing about overall passing performance.