What To Expect

Despite defeat at St Mirren, those that produce Expected Points models are still indicating Celtic have an expected lead over their opponents.

@TheGersReport takes the underlying performance data and projects the season forwards on the basis that results will track to that data. His model has Celtic winning the league by 24 points! Note this model has been pretty accurate over the last three seasons.

@SRFootball_ takes the performance data and projects outcomes using a Monte Carlo simulation – playing the same game 10,000 times to assess what the data suggests the outcome should have been. His model has Celtic 2.73 Expected Points ahead as opposed to the actual two at Week Seven.

Note also, based on Honest Mistakes, The Rangers are 1.1 Expected Points better off thanks to the decisions of the referees.

Not all doom and gloom after Paisley then.

The underlying data suggests Celtic are still the strongest side.

A very simple way of highlighting this is to map Expected Goals For (xGF) and Expected Goals Against (xGA).

Currently, for the SPFL, we have:

It is early still, and the 9-0 hammering administered to Dundee United will influence theirs and Celtic’s numbers for a few weeks yet.

Celtic have a clear xG Difference (xGD) lead. The difference between xGF and xGA is 2.03, the next highest being 1.04.

A warning that Motherwell, Celtic’s next opponents, are third best for xGD with 0.62.

What this magnitude of xGD means for Celtic is that by generating over two xG more than the opponent each game (on average) allows a certain amount of negative variance (excellent opponent goalkeeping; dodgy decisions; bad misses by strikers) to be absorbed.

With The Rangers at 1.04, they are more prone to dropping points due to those factors. Ok, a stretch regarding dodgy decisions but you know what I mean.

Note Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian’s numbers are almost identical. The reason for the disparity in league position? Much of that is down to Craig Gordon. He makes 3.43 saves per 90m. Only Kilmarnock and Dundee United allow more.

So, take heart that the underlying data suggests Celtic are in a good place despite the horror performance in Paisley.

Of course, this will change as the season progresses.

This article was written using FotMob data.