What The Ghosts of xG Past and Future Might Have Won. Or - How Big Is The Gap?

A 16-point lead for Celtic ahead of the derby, but is that gap an accurate reflection of performance?

Celtic has a 16-point lead going into this weekend's derby at home to The Rangers.

With nine games remaining, and 27 points to play for, it seems an imperious advantage. Putting any giddy merchants to one side, the more sombre Opta estimates the Blues have a 0.1% chance of winning from this position.

I do not gamble and would not encourage anyone else to do so, but I take their odds as market information that is, again, coming from a non-giddy source and therefore worth considering.

The best you can get on Oddschecker (by best, I mean more potentially favourable to the bettor) is 4/5 on a Celtic win – I believe this means to win £4 you’d need to risk £5.

An away win is most favourably represented at 15/4 meaning that a £4 bet would potentially win you £15. So, it appears Celtic are three times more likely to win, according to the betting markets.

It is 16/5 for a draw.

The theme today is “How big is the gap”?

In this time of apparent takeovers with a complete scrutiny bypass leading to a steady flow of gushing giddy gunge, one might think any “gap” is about to close sharpish. Maybe, maybe not.

More prosaically, today we’ll focus on matters on the park and in the here and now as we look forward to an actual football match.

As we all know, the league table DOES lie and therefore let’s take the 16-point lead off the table as a starter.