Under Committed and Out Played
Over the course of doing this site there have been many victories to report. But I must be balanced and fair when performances are poor and say it like it is. So it is with the last match. Not a happy one. Much grumpiness ahead.
Excuses
Let’s get the excuses out the way first:
It didn’t matter the league is already won
“Yes but we can still win the Treble Treble”
The players have played hundreds of games over 3 years with next to no rest
The injuries!
“Rodgers left us in the lurch”
There is rarely one thing and I am sure all the above had a small part to play in Sunday’s events. But occasionally performances are so woeful as to be career limiting. Those are the days you find out an awful lot about the staff and players. This was one such day.
Selection
Firstly, stop picking players who are unfit. Just don’t.
This time it was Lustig. He went off with a hamstring strain last match. Even if not a full tear these can take weeks of recovery. He is not a young player. He went off with a reoccurrence before half time. When the home side had a corner and Celtic had to defend it a (tall) man down.
But Lustig’s lack of physical speed was exploited in the first minute when Kent closed him down with intensity and Johnston fouled the advancing Kent as he broke at Celtic. And they scored.
Tierney has been mismanaged all year. He has missed 18 matches and appeared in 9 in 2019. If you see him trying to complete a recovery run at Aberdeen you can see he is operating well below capability and free movement. He needs an operation. Do it. And let him recover properly.
If you believe Hayes will provide more threat than Sinclair then I can’t help you. Hayes will provide more chances (1.92 per 90m to 1.26). But Sinclair’s xG is 0.52 compared to 0.08 for Hayes. You might create 7 more chances over 10 matches with Hayes but you will take nearly 5 goals out the team. And Edouard needs support.
Twice now young Johnston has been thrown in at Ibrox in an unfamiliar role (striker in December and right wing back here). It is expecting a lot from a young player. And shows other more senior players they are not trusted.
Formation
Celtic set up 3-5-2 against the home side’s 4-3-2-1. If felt like when McLeish discovered 4-3-3 caused O’Neill’s 3-5-2 no end of issues. This wasn’t quite the same.
The Rangers played narrow and utterly stifled Celtic’s options through the middle. As there was only Hayes and Johnston wide, on their own, options were limited.
This is an approximation of the average positions of the players.
Celtic Possession
In possession Celtic had three players in central defence against Defoe so immediately it is 7 v 9.
Lustig has Johnston pulled in tight on the right because he is not fit and is concerned with Kent’s pace.
Hayes is trying to provide width high up the left. Consequently, McGregor is filling in on the left as an out ball.
Brown is patrolling in from of the back three, not really involved in forward actions.
Rogic is wandering slightly to the right.
Edouard is trying to fill the ‘10’ space and dropping deep.
Burke I think is on the last man. Watching the television play back I could not actually see him in the picture at any time.
Meanwhile, The Rangers:
Allow the Celtic back three to have the ball.
Press quickly using the tucked in half forwards (Kent and Arfield) if the ball goes wide.
Davis, Kamara and Jack play as a unit, always in touch with each other.
This forms a five man shield in the middle zones where Celtic are trying to play.
But the Celtic attackers are disconnected and are not physically close enough to each other to interact.
Look at the gaps between McGregor, Brown and Rogic compared to the home side’s shape.
The result is Celtic have lots of passive possession (i.e. amongst the back three). Simunovic and Ajer accounted for 37% of all Celtic’s passes.
Of the 153 passes they completed, only 1, from Ajer to Burke on 40 minutes was a forward pass from one of the that pair to a forward.
Lustig connected three times with Edouard in the first half and once with Rogic. He remains the best long passer from the back and was missed in this regard if nothing else.
Over the 90 minutes 11 forward passes took out an opponent and connected with one of the forwards.
The change of shape in the second half to 4-4-1-1 did not resolve this. Now Brown and McGregor are closer together but completely outnumbered.
The Rangers Possession
Out of possession Celtic simply didn’t press with the same intensity as the home side rendering difference in shape largely academic. However, with the Celtic midfield being disconnected, and with Edouard and Burke providing nothing like the defensive cover of The Rangers front three, the Blues were able to find forward passes diagonally and from wide to centre, with ease.
The Rangers found their forwards 21 times with pack passes, taking out at least one Celtic player each time. The lively Kent was the recipient of 12 of those with three out their back four connecting with the wide attacker, in contrast to Celtic.
Celtic simply never matched the home side’s desire and work rate, which is unforgivable. The example above was preceded by Celtic wining the ball back and quickly advancing it to Edouard. Jack, Davis and Kamara have ALL sprinted back to help out quickly stifling the Celtic attack. No Celtic midfielders are supporting Edouard and Burke.
It was one example, there were plenty more.
You Get What You Put In
This was not a match where Celtic were under constant pressure or giving up chance after chance. The Rangers had 11 shots but only Arfield’s brilliantly crafted second could be construed a big chance. Defoe had a shot from inside the box and central saved comfortably by Bain. Goldson headed over from a low xG chance from a corner in the first. Otherwise it was low probability long efforts.
Yet it was a very comfortable win for The Rangers.
Celtic’s xG of 0.518 was their lowest domestically of the season as was 1 shot on target. 2 shots inside the box is a season low in Scotland. 2 chances created is the lowest by 4. Celtic only took out 7 defenders with forward passes equalling the pitiful December effort.
This wasn’t a rampant attacking home performance but they perfectly stifled Celtic in every way.
Individual Performances
There is genuinely no interest from me in picking on individuals and I gave Hayes Bhoy of the Match simply on the basis he had sweat on his shirt at the end (I don’t have a stat for that).
The inability of the side to engage the forwards can be highlighted:
Burke completed 7 passes all match, and lost the ball 7 times
Rogic completed 9 passes and only 1 took out an opponent
Sinclair completed 1 pass in 24 minutes
Hayes gave the ball away 16 times with errant passes including 5 failed crosses
Toljan either passed it back, or forward and to a blue shirt – he gave the ball away 14 times in 45 minutes
The forward players completed 3 pack passes between them
I’m not exonerating the rest.
You know I love Ajer on this blog. But, whilst I’m grumpy, there are three things the coaches have to help him with:
Keep your hands down – it’s an easy free kick to give;
Learn to use your left foot if you are going to play left centre back – many passes or options disadvantaged taking a millisecond to adjust onto his right; and
The second goal – sliding in with the wrong foot – i.e. the right which halted his momentum rather than swinging around with his left minimising the risk of a penalty and using his momentum positively.
How to finish with anything positive to say?
Despite being set up wrong, making ineffective changes, and having virtually every player display less physical commitment than their opponent, the following should be remembered.
Celtic have intrinsic structural advantages including legitimate and transparent ownership, safe and transparent financials, and a strong core squad. Those fundamentals will not change any time soon over the strategic long term.
However, more management and player performances like that and many tactical defeats will follow.