Transfer Window Checkpoint
As a consistent critic of Celtic’s squad management over the last number of seasons, I wanted to take a check point on where we are now the 4th Summer signing, Abd Elhamed, is in the door.
Operating Environment
Firstly, Celtic operate in a unique place where they are a relatively affluent club from a non-Top 5 European League who have to commence transfer operations in mid-June. This is well before some clubs return to preseason. Up to four rounds of Champions League qualification have to be planned for. Most good players with options will leave it as late as possible within the transfer windows (which variously run to the end of August but some leagues are later) to commit and drive the maximum deal.
Furthermore, Celtic have many valuable assets in the squad such as Tierney, Ajer, Ntcham, McGregor and Edouard. Any one of those could fetch eight figure transfer fees. Given the larger clubs from the more monied leagues will not do business until later in the window, Celtic are further at risk from a late bid for a key asset as happened with Dembele last year. This leaves little time to source a replacement.
Also, European football fate has an impact on budget projections and will not be known until late August (hopefully).
In short, it is a difficult environment for the club to operate in terms of buying and selling.
Historical Squad Mis-management
All that being said, I believe that the squad has had some glaring weaknesses that have not been addressed over many windows:
The lack of succession planning for Lustig / right back;
Lack of stability in central defence and entering every Champions League qualifying campaign with a patched-up pairing;
The lack of succession planning for Brown;
The lack of cover for Tierney;
An overabundance of wingers; and
Continual shortage of fit striking options.
And here we are, in the second of (hopefully) four Champions League qualifying ties with:
No trusted recognised right back;
A central midfielder playing at centre back (already badly exposed at this level) and the best centre back prospect at right back;
Relying on Brown; and
Hoping Edouard is not injured as the only fully match fit striker.
Lennon’s Requirements
None of this is Lennon’s fault, of course.
He has consistently stated his requirements:
5 starters in;
1 a right back with further cover for that position;
1 more striker; and
1 more central midfielder.
That is not to say other players who are “projects” or back ups will not be purchased. See next section.
Business So Far
With the addition of Abd Elhamed, Celtic have acquired four players this Summer.
Matching the incomings to the requirements:
Abed Elhamed is a centre back who can play right back and defensive midfield. I would posit he is the cover at right back whilst filling the 4th centre back position after Ajer, Jullien and Simunovic. In other words, he is a utility squad player and not one of the five starters.
Bolingoli provides cover for Tierney and is a natural to fill a left-wing back role in a 3-5-2 formation, one of Lennon’s favoured systems. I believe, with concerns over a) his injuries and b) whether he will move in this window, that Bolingoli is seen as a starter in the event of losing Tierney. Best case, he will allow quality cover for Tierney in the event he stays and recovers full fitness.
Connell is a project who became available due to Bolton Wanderers financial difficulties. At the cost of a development fee, and with the ringing endorsement of the senior Republic of Ireland management team, he is seen as one for the future and not one of the starters.
Jullien, at £7m, is seen as one of the starters and a direct replacement for Boyata.
So, Celtic have filled 2 out of the 5 starter positions Lennon has identified.
Work to Do
That means that Celtic are actively looking for starter standard players at right back, central midfield and striker.
The right back saga resembles The Searchers and has thus far been fruitless. Names mentioned (Baldock, Smith in particular) are, at best, uninspiring, and at worst, not upgrades on players who have left. Suffice to say the search goes on.
Turnbull was the target for the midfield role and we all know how that went. This suggests Lennon wants a box to box type all round midfielder. It further suggests Brown will be covered by a combination of Bitton and Abd Elhamed. That is, the required target is not seen as a Brown replacement. I will discuss below what that may mean to outgoings.
There have been very few rumours on the 4th striker. Hopefully this is a classic Celtic quiet piece of business.
By the way, four strikers make sense even if you do not believe Lennon will develop the team to a 4-4-2 variant of 3-5-2 (or both). You need to go back to the 15th April 2018 for the last time Celtic had there three strikers fit. Since that day (the Scottish Cup Semi Final massacre of The Rangers), for 465 days, Celtic have had only two of Dembele, Edouard and Griffiths fit. None of the loan players from January 2019 (Weah, Burke) were natural strikers.
So, even if Lennon goes with one striker, it seems like history suggests four are needed in the squad.
Outgoings
Whilst pruning the squad by eight (Allan, Boyata, Compper, De Vries. Gamboa, Izaguirre, Lustig, Mulumbu), this still leaves a first team pool of 29. This is still too large.
Bain is being given the chance to prove himself to Lennon with Gordon, now fit, as cover. This is not a priority area.
There is no one left to move on at right back. Ralston is still here but with Celtic claiming Abd Elhamed is one right back, and a first choice still being pursued, it could mean a loan spell for the youngster with less than 1000 minutes to his name.
Left back may see Tierney depart but his ongoing injury problems may preclude that. Lennon confirms the double hernia rehab AND the degenerative pubis issue for Tierney. He is “weeks” from joining first team training then has to get up to fitness. If he does leave, another left back will be needed.
Bolingoli seems to be first team ready leaving Miller and Hayes as back up. Do not be surprised if Miller is subject to another loan spell out.
Centre back looks to be filled with Abd Elhamed and Jullien replacing Boyata and Benkovic. Probably not an uptick on quality overall, but a deepening of the squad for permanent employees. I cannot see Hendry figuring should all four be available. Especially as Bitton seems to be preferred as an alternative.
In defensive midfield Brown is now covered by Bitton and Abd Elhamed. Kouassi is fit and with minimal game time over the last three seasons could be another candidate for a loan out.
Of the number eights, Ntcham is back in the fold with McGregor and Christie. This is where Lennon wants one other. It was to be Turnbull. Whether this is predicated on Christie being a 10 / support striker or Ntcham leaving (or both) it looks an area that will be short. Henderson may not be seen as ready for a long campaign and could be loaned out.
There is a question of whether Lennon favours playing with an out and out 10. Only Rogic fits that description in the current squad. His form and injury record suggest he is out the picture for now although Lennon says he is back in rehab (weeks from fitness in other words). With Christie able to fulfil a hybrid 8 and 10 role, I would not be surprised to see Rogic balance the books if he regains fitness before the windows close.
Rodger’s “millions of wingers” quip was more instructive of his relationship with the Celtic hierarchy than anything else, but there are many choices in this area. Morgan and Johnston have been given the opportunity to compliment Forrest in the wing positions. Forrest may be ear marked for a support striker role centrally which further limits Rogic involvement. In which case Shved and the on loan Arzani may feature. Hayes would be back up to those players but a useful bench player as he can cover so many positions. Again, if books need to be balanced, Hayes would he a candidate.
That leaves Sinclair. He does not seem to be favoured by Lennon, and was left out towards the end of last season. Morgan and Johnston have been preferred not only to start but to come on as substitutes. Will a season at sub be what he wants at this stage of his career?
Finally, striker. Given the consistent trend of having no more than two strikers at a time, I believe Celtic will go with four. Bayo, Edouard and Griffiths supplemented by one more – perhaps a younger player although another starter would be a statement from Lennon.
Outgoing Summary
In summary, I foresee loans out for:
Ralston
Miller
Kouassi
Henderson
To reduce the squad to manageable numbers the following may be surplus to requirements:
Hendry
Hayes
Rogic
The latter will generate a reaction but I am going by three things.
I am not convinced Lennon favours playing an out and out 10.
Lennon would prefer to repurpose Forrest or have Christie in that role.
Rogic’s form fell off the cliff last season. With three years left on his contract, Celtic could cash in.
I foresee Sinclair having to make a decision on whether he wants to stay and try and convince Lennon to trust him, or take the opportunity for a final EPL play day.
That would reduce the working squad size to 26 assuming Celtic buy three more starters and Sinclair stays.
That sounds about right.
Conclusion
Lennon states Celtic are “miles” from having the squad he wants. I believe he is looking for at least three more starter level players.
The squad will be too big if there are no outgoings. There are some obvious loan leavers to consider. There will have to be some squad churn to keep the numbers manageable and offset the £12 million (so far) outlay.
Feel free to disagree / comment below!