Top Cat or Catastrophe?

Luis Palma has settled into the left attacking wide position recently vacated by the much-loved Jota.

Stray Cat

There are certainly rough edges to the 23-year-old Honduran.

His 68% all pass completion is the lowest in the squad equal to barely on the ball Kyogo Furuhashi.

In the recent match against Dundee, he gave the ball away from 31 passes (eight corner passes) in what must be a record though I haven’t checked. No player gives the ball away from open play more than he – 13.91 per 90m but Greg Taylor is trying his best (12.24). In eight of the last ten appearances, he has given the ball away from open play ten times or more and it is 71 stray passes in the last four matches.

Top Cat

Yet, despite this he currently has a higher overall expected scoring contribution (xA + xG) at 0.88 than Jota had last season (0.79).

He also has a higher aggregated overall Celtic Attacking Score (CAT) of 10.20 compared to Jota’s 9.61.

So, a better player than Jota?

Cat Nip

There are large caveats to all the above.

Four penalty efforts hugely inflate his xG. On a non-penalty xG basis, Jota has the edge 0.34 to 0.30. Palma takes more shots (3.38 to 2.98) but they have the same shot quality as expressed by average xG per shot (0.13).

A chunk of his xA generation comes from corner delivery. Jota took corners as well but had an xA associated of 0.01 per 90m compared to Palma’s 0.09.

Open play xA is 0.39 for Jota and Palma is on 0.34.

It is important as penalty taking and corner taking are specific skills, think the American Football concept of “special teams”. Open play is where the purer football talents are revealed albeit it we want to have corner and penalty specialists.

Cat Pack

As always, the packing data reveals much.

Jota completed the more pack passes but Palma’s are more impactful (pack pass score of 30.16 for the Portuguese versus 34.44 for the Honduran.

Both are excellent ta getting on the ball and are both “volume” attackers. Palma’s receive pack score is 54.37 compared to 39.23 by Jota.

Lacking the pace of Jota who was not high end, the Honduran has 6.09 ball carries to Jota’s 5.74. He’s a carrier rather than a dribbler.

Cat Litter

All of this seems highly encouraging in terms of his prospects of replacing Jota’s high-volume productivity from the left flank.

There is a “but”.

And it comes back to where I started.

He can be so wasteful in possession. He loses the ball 10.93 times in the final third compared to Jota’s 7.83. He also has more failed dribbles, crosses and attempted through balls. I suspect some of you might be invoking the “Hatate defence” at this moment “Ah but he is trying to be creative”!

Yeh but see above. He has four more pack turnovers per game than Jota, meaning when he loses the ball, he puts his own teammates out the game.

Summary

Palma has the creative instincts of a number ten rather than a winger. His secondary assisting passes are nearly double Jota’s and his packing scores suggest someone who understands that taking defenders out the game is of high benefit – he packs slight more than Jota (4.97 opposition defenders to 4.70).

With his shooting skills I’d still prefer him central at the point of a diamond or even as a deep lying forward.

However, he is still more Jota-esque than some may have expected.

I didn’t mention his defensive work, but he is a far more effective presser, counter presser and recoverer of the ball than Jota.

I would finish by saying although he frustrates me hugely, I think the club did well to recoup vast sums for Jota and spend a fraction of it on the Honduran.

He’s different but could yet become the cool cat.