Time for Postecoglou
As I sit here, melting and keeping out the fierce sun, my daughter is watching a Dr Who. This reminds me of one of the long-standing jokes in my old role in IT Programme Management whenever a tricky and time critical (aren’t they all?) project came along.
Step 1: Build a Time Machine.
I know, hilarious. But relevant to the Celtic project Postecoglou has taken on.
Ange Postecoglou will be a successful Celtic manager.
Bookmark if you like. But this is a highly experienced football coach who habitually improves teams. He achieves this through clarity of playing vision and a rare ability to communicate it effectively.
Of course, there has to be a caveat. He must be supported by the club. Confidence this will happen is not high. The incoherence exhibited in his recruitment is testament. Someone explain to me the joined-up thinking that connects Roy Keane to Eddie Howe to Postecoglou?
Team Tactics
Likely by luck then, Celtic have happened upon a manager with gravitas. The substantial challenge for McKay is to align the departments to support the manager in a coherent way.
On the field, Postecoglou will have firm and consistent ideas about how he wants his team to play. He readily admits this takes time to implement. Much of the strategy depends upon attacking patterns of movement allied to coordinated pressing off the ball.
Both those facets require time to communicate, practise and implement consistently. Many months, usually.
Transfers
This reality, with a backdrop of never-ending injuries, players wanting away / kept beyond their wishes and a transfer market marching to a difference cadence than Celtic’s need to conduct business by mid-July, all points to the need for patience and understanding. Put another way, short term disappointment is almost inevitable.
Last season’s hoarding of unhappy players (part due to a COVID-decimated transfer market and part in a misguided attempt to secure 10 with the known) allied to poor loan and signing choices, has left the new manager a complete rebuild. Nine in a row was won through year-on-year calibration – 3 or 4 in 3 or 4 out. This isn’t that.
And this isn’t just a case of bringing in bodies. The manager is very clear on what attributes are required and the scouting and recruitment arm needs to deliver to that spec. Early signs are promising. Furuhashi and (hopefully) Starfelt, are well matched to requirements and indicative of a new direction of intelligent, dare I say data led, recruitment.
But this all takes time. Celtic’s place in the world means whereas 10 years ago it was £900k on Wanyama, 20, from Belgium with 60 games under his belt. Now it is £3.4m on Abada, 19, from Israel with similar number of games. Or a right back from France with under 20 matches experience (Soppy?) compared to a 22-year-old Van Dijk with 66 games in the Netherlands.
Support Structures
Data-driven recruitment and the proliferation of video analysis tools, as well as leagues such as the J-League and MLS able to market themselves globally, means there are fewer gems/unknowns. I can get stats in English U20 matches if required.
Celtic have been slow in this regard to keep up with clubs like Brentford, Atalanta, Salzburg, Leipzig and yes, Midtjylland, but there is a glimmer that may be changing. Again, this takes time.
There is a view amongst some of the support that either a) Celtic don’t have the modern support structures or b) people in those departments are ineffective and should all be replaced. I suspect the reality is that Celtic have many of the structures of the modern football club, but if they are not listened too or lack the skills/tools to communicate and influence effectively.
Whichever, the result will be the same – the failure to exploit all the small margins available. McKay speaks of modernisation, and Postecoglou is a smart man who will exploit all the available information and knowledge. But the corporate body has to be taken on the journey and there will be background comings and goings to fit in with philosophy and values.
Guess what? That takes time.
Conclusion
After a season where everything that could go wrong did, a systemic meltdown of a year, Celtic may have fallen, by accident, on their next great manager.
Both the manager and the CEO speak as one of the needs to modernise and build. This is encouraging but the reality underneath those words Is hard work, singularity of vision and time.
This is all within the backdrop of a season where the SPFL winner gets access to the Champions League group stages. A potentially game changing outcome in the battle for domestic hegemony.
Given the environment and challenges the manager faces, for me winning the SPFL title this season represents THE target and would be a success in my eyes. Anything over and above that would be, not even a bonus, but potentially a distraction.
I doubt that is a popular view amongst many in the support. However, Postecoglou has always been about the long game and I am with him on that all the way.