The Welsh / Bitton Partnership
As highlighted yesterday and evidenced in preseason, defensive options are limited for Celtic ahead of tonight’s Champions League qualifier against Danes FC Midtjylland.
The continuing absence of Jullien is a huge blow and his partnership with the soon to be transferred Ajer was the bedrock of the highly successful 19/20 season.
Without endlessly debating the limited options, based on preseason, the likely back four will be:
Ralston – Welsh – Bitton – Taylor
Oh how we joked about that in the final Huddle Breakdown of last season. (Please subscribe by the way – it is excellent).
Considering the centre backs, then.
A Brief Affair
Welsh and Bitton have 90 minutes of history as a partnership. This was with Bain in goal and Kenny at right back but also Taylor at left back. It was against Aberdeen on 21st April 2020. The match ended 1-1.
Aberdeen managed 1.72 xG off 9 shots, 4 on target. Welsh had a pretty solid game other than losing his man at a corner allowing Ferguson to score. Eek.
Each won 6 challenges, which is low for a defender.
Both were behind McGregor in possession with 95 and 80 passes completed, and Bitton producing 11 pack passes and Welsh 7.
Essentially, as a partnership, they were relatively passive in defensive actions but good at ball progression.
Sidebar: both Christie and Edouard started this game, performed like they’d rather be on Skegness beach and were both hooked on 61 minutes. Yet here we are. What did Postecoglou say about hesitancy?
Defensive Metrics
I have updated the key defensive metrics post last season. I have plotted all the main centre backs from the last seven seasons.
A reminder:
Defensive Action Success Rate – as well as a mouthful this is a measure of defensive actions only (duels, intercepts, blocks, shield outs, fouls) and to what extent the player successfully wins those.
Possession Win % - what % of defensive actions result in Celtic winning the ball. Excludes passes.
Note that Van Dijk’s data is ONLY his last season at the club.
Note also that Ajer’s numbers are depressed mainly due to the number of times he is dispossessed attempting dribbles up the pitch, something that increased hugely last season. That it, as not all data is ever perfect, this skews his numbers down despite, in this case not being due to defensive actions per se.
But even then, you can hopefully see that a partnership of Ajer and Jullien is as good as it has been for Celtic since I have collected the data.
A combination of Welsh and Bitton, on the other hand……
Welsh’s numbers are dragged down by his aerial duel stats. He loses 1.8 per 90m and leads all recent centre backs in outright duel losses and aerial duel losses where Celtic nevertheless get the ball (that is, he loses the header but the ball ends up at in Celtic’s possession). This deflates the fact he rarely ever loses a ground duel (i.e. tackle).
Unfortunately, Midtjylland are a team that rely on aerial threat (or did do – new manager this season).
Bitton is actually ok by these measures but is solidly in the middle class of more recent Celtic centre backs. He weakness is broadly Defensive Errors.
Defensive Errors
More specifically, he is late to react to danger and positionally can get caught out.
Midtjylland’s style – direct play and reliance on set plays, introduces a lot of variance into the play. Meaning unpredictability of angle of attack, lots of second balls. It needs good concentration and anticipation. This is where Bitton is weak.
Passing Progression
On the other hand, having Welsh and Bitton together melds perfectly to Postecoglou’s notion of having ball playing, accurate passing centre backs.
I’ve collected Packing Data for the last four seasons. Here are the top Pack pass performers in that time (centre backs):
Interestingly, the best centre back packing performances have come in the two seasons with Lennon in charge. Welsh averages 11 completed pack passes per game and has the best accuracy at 94%. Bitton, as we know, is a converted central midfielder and has a lovely range of passing.
So, on that front at least, in ball progression, Celtic’s approach should align to the style Postecoglou is looking for.
I am ending on that positive note ?.
Conclusion
This is a partnership with 90 minutes experience.
Bitton is a decent all-round defender whose shortfall is poor positioning, anticipation and concentration leading to a high error count.
Welsh is an excellent ground tackler but loses often in aerial duels. Overall, he is a low error defender.
Both are up there as the best progressive and accurate passers forward of recent centre halves.
There is always hope.