The Right Back?
The Celtic right back problem was addressed after Lustig’s leaving with the purchases of Elhamed and Frimpong, and the loan acquisition of Bauer.
Elhamed is the senior right back at the club and despite various injury interruptions has racked up more than the 900 minutes I use as minimum sample size.
So, let’s compare Elhamed to Lustig’s final season.
Defensive Metrics
The primary defensive metrics I calculate are Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR). This is a % showing the ratio of defensive actions that were successful. Also, Possession Won / Lost assesses whether defensive actions resulted in Celtic retaining possession or not. Neither include passing.
Here are the numbers comparing Lustig (18/19) and Elhamed (19/20):
Lustig scores higher on both measures by quite some distance. The numbers for Elhamed are even more worrisome given he has played centre back in at least part of half his appearances. Centre backs will generate higher numbers by these metrics than full backs.
Remember as well that this is so-called “declining” Lustig. In fact, he was still the best right back at the club and I suggested at the end of the season he would be difficult to replace.
If we dig into the numbers a bit more and look into the number of defensive challenges and possessions won and lost:
We see that Elhamed is involved in many more challenges. He his clearly a faster player than Lustig, and his style of play is more “front foot” as one might expect from Lennon’s remodelled Celtic.
But sometimes more is less. The overall win ratios are less than Lustig as we have seen. He was a vastly experienced international player. Part of a consistently successful Swedish national team who quality for major tournaments.
Finally, let’s look at fouls committed and defensive errors.
More is once again less. Elhamed commits more fouls than Lustig, not surprising given the greater number of engagements. And he also has a higher defensive error rate. My personal threshold for defensive errors is 0.5 and Elhamed is breaching that (0.55). He was culpable for one of the Cluj goals in the 3-4 debacle which was probably the low point.
The Swede’s data suggests a more circumspect player, less prone to engaging with the opposition, but choosing his moments more wisely.
Creativity
As mentioned many times a Celtic full back is integral to attacking patterns.
Elhamed has undoubtedly got the speed Lustig probably never had. The Israeli has had some thrilling ball progressions, something Lustig rarely attempted.
And he is creating more chances that Lustig in his final season – 1.38 per 90 compared to 1.26.
Their expected assists (xA) rates are almost identical indicating the quality of the chances being made.
Whilst Elhamed offers threat running with the ball, Lustig became one of Celtic’s most reliable long passers from the back. We can assess this by looking at Passing Impect – an indicator of the extent forward passes took opponents out the game.
There is no contest here. Lustig has a 40% better Passing Impect rate. Despite not getting into the final third as much as the more mobile Israeli, Lustig was more effective at getting Celtic up the park and behind opposition players.
As an aside and apropos Lennon’s style versus Rodgers. Lustig averaged 70.25 completed passes in his final season. Elhamed averages 45.83.
Summary
The mood music from the support is that we like Elhamed. He is exciting to watch. He reflects Lennon’s style of being more aggressive and proactive. His runs up the wing have added excitement.
Lustig was a steadier, less spectacular player. I think he will forever be under estimated and continue to be difficult to fully replace.
Elhamed has some way to go to be as effective as a 32-year-old declining Lustig. Also, we used to worry about Lustig’s fitness record. Elhamed is injured again – the 3rd different injury since joining and will miss another 4-6 weeks.
Now Frimpong is another article entirely. But I need more data!