The Real Return of Lennyball
Article by James Dailey
Is Neil Lennon the ultimate decision maker when it comes to the system and formations Celtic are deploying on the pitch? That seems like a silly question, and it may very well be. The only reason I ask it is due to the dramatic shift in how Celtic have played this season versus how he had his teams play during his tenure at Hibs.
Lennon’s Formations
The following are the top three formations, total formations used, % of game time with 2 up top, and then I’ve also thrown in the formation used when playing a man down. I’ve also included Rodgers’ tenure and the “Mixed” season where both managed.
There is no question that Lennon could have evolved and changed his mind about formation and tactics- the shift to a 4-3-2 when being a man down suggests such an evolution when likely confronted with the analytics which support such a switch. Also, the lack of viable striker options and injuries at centre half have likely limited his options to the point where he has settled on a 4-2-3-1. However, 84% of the time?!?!
I’ve always found the delay in Lennon’s acceptance of the Celtic job in May following the infamous shower scene interesting. It seemed like a job he would have jumped at immediately, yet it took him and the club a few days to go public with his decision to accept. In addition, Lennon was very public during his time at Celtic last season that he had not really changed much and was keeping Rodgers’ systems intact. The obvious overlap between managers has been John Kennedy and Damien Duff.
Lennon has also been public this season about how his role has been different during his current tenure as Manager, as he’s apparently delegated day to day training to Kennedy and Duff. During Rodgers’ tenure, ten different formations were used which played with a single striker, while so far this season Celtic have deployed 4-2-3-1 almost exclusively.
Given the shift in shape for the Cup game vs Partick Thistle, I think it will be very interesting to monitor how Celtic set up in the coming weeks. As mentioned, personnel and injuries may have contributed to the odd exclusivity of the 4-2-3-1. But this is where I throw out my complete speculation – perhaps Lennon was told he had to keep Kennedy and Duff rather than bring in “his people” in order to get the job, and that is what took Lennon some time to accept? Perhaps the internal dynamics with the managerial team is now one of compromise, as 4-2-3-1 seems to be at the center of a sort of Lennon/Rodgers Venn Diagram of formations?
Conclusion
I raise such a hypothetical only because the lack of varying formations, even when deploying a single striker, is a complete outlier given the managerial histories of both Lennon and Rodgers. Given our personnel, at least some use of 4-3-2-1 or 4-1-4-1 would seem to be expected given Lennon’s track record at Hibs. I am guessing the increase in personnel options at striker combined with the pressure of a legit title challenge is likely to push Lennon towards his comfort zone – at least some of the time. The Partick Thistle game was 100% 4-3-1-2, which is the first we’ve seen it this season but was a staple of Lennon’s at Hibs and suggests a true return to “Lennyball”.