The Rangers Battle Constant Change and Reverting to the Mean
Celtic enter the last game of 2018 with a three-point lead and a game in hand in the SPFL. Once more, the major performance goals have been met:
European football after New Year
League Cup triumph
Top of the league
Yet overall performance metrics remain stagnant (Rodgers is matching last season’s 70% Points %) due perhaps to injuries, squad management failings and inconsistency of selection. None of that will matter if success is achieved at Ibrox and squad management improves in January.
The Gerrard Revolution (#LetsGo) is the latest incarnation of an annual renewal of management and playing squad. Fifteen players in and ten out. More money spent than any other club in Scotland. Indeed, it is remarkable that post liquidation, the Ibrox club have (net) spent over £60 million more in transfer fees than Champions League regulars Celtic. The Ibrox outfit has net spent around £17m whilst Celtic have net brought in over £43m. Talk about a magic money tree!
Results would suggest there is dubious benefit to this continual cycle of management and player churn. No major trophies and management performance records that are broadly similar. The below table shows overall results in the top flight only (plus Cups and Europe). Each match is assumed to potentially yield 1 point for a draw and 3 for a win.
Clearly Gerrard has had more European matches against tougher opposition than usually faced in Scotland and allied to further millions spent, it could be argued there is slight improvement over last season.
Arguably this season The Rangers may be the closest yet to meeting their Chairman’s desire to be a “strong second”. They have the second most shots (273) after Celtic (346). The Light Blues have the league;s best shot accuracy rate at 44% comparing favourably with the Hoops 38%.
Until recent matches (5 goals in 6 matches) The Rangers had easily the best shot conversion in the league. A scarcely maintainable 18% has proven unmaintainable and is now down at 15%. This is the best in the league still and 2% higher than Celtic’s. On target shot conversion for both sides is 35%.
No teams’ opponents are less accurate than versus The Rangers. Only 32% of opponents’ shots hit the target, the lowest in the league and 3% lower than Celtic’s opponents. Both sides are seeing their opponents score from 10% of all shots which is low (Livingston are at 8% and this is surely unsustainable also). The same pattern was seen in The Rangers Europa League campaign. Whilst they converted 12% of shots, their opponents managed a mere 6% which is incredibly low (the McGregor effect?).
The Ibrox side has an appalling disciplinary record (8 red cards and 77 yellow cards) compared to 4 red and 36 yellow by the Champions. Goldson (8 YC), Candeias (8 YC, 2 RC) and Morelos (14 YC and 3 RC) particularly struggle to maintain discipline. Despite this, in the SPFL at least, it is The Rangers opponents that are the most penalised. Their opponents pick up a card every 5.16 fouls, the highest rate in the league. Celtic’s opponents receive a card every 5.95 fouls. On the other hand, Celtic receive a card every 10.17 fouls whilst for The Rangers players it is every 5.86 fouls.
Man in black John Beaton has handed out 41 cards in his 10 SPFL matches – 17 to home sides and 24 away. His 4.1 cards per 90m is slightly above the league average of 3.9. Beaton has overseen Celtic’s loss at Heart of Midlothian and the 5-0 Celtic win against the same opponent. He took The Rangers 3-1 win over the same opponent as the only Light Blues match officiated.
The theme here is that in the first half of the season Gerrard’s side have probably outperformed the numbers and are due the correction to the expected that is now occurring. It is the same story in Europe where a nice run of low profile, low ranking opponents was overcome despite being out shot over the four rounds (no xG data available I’m afraid). A competitive group stage where all three opponents sacked their managers within the campaign yielded but one win and failure to qualify by four points.
Whether further money is available to strengthen again in January yielding more change, it appears the season may have peaked for Gerrard’s side as performances revert to the mean the numbers would suggest.
But anything can happen over 90 minutes!