The Rangers 1 Celtic 5, by numbers

Despite Celtic winning four and drawing one, dominating all meetings with The Rangers since their arrival in the Premier Division, there remained a feeling of unfinished business. Even after the Scottish Cup semi-final, there was chatter of Celtic being an average team. But as I pointed out on Twitter and illustrated on Celtic By Numbers (The Rangers v Celtic preview by numbers), whilst The Rangers performance data indicated average opposition to Celtic, Celtic had not performed to their highest levels in a derby thus far. Given Celtic are often more effective away from home as the opposition tend not to sit in so deep, a performance and result like Saturday’s was not unexpected.

The gap in terms of squad ability was laid bare. Kenny Miller, by a distance the Ibrox outfits most effective performer, was quoted claiming other Scottish sides can emulate Celtic’s performance in the transfer window. Characteristically, he misses the point. You can trace where Celtic are today as a project 23 years in the development, since Fergus McCann. Rodgers can revitalise with few signings (he has only just started moulding his own squad) because the players already at Celtic were good enough (every starter on Saturday bar Sinclair). It takes years, sustainable investment, and patience. Will that be evidenced at Ibrox?

But what of the match itself?

*PEI is Possession Effectiveness Index – a measure of all possession events and the extent possession was retained.

Obsessed by Possession

Some debate post-match whether BBC and / or Sky had accurately recorded the possession statistic. Firstly, possession does not tell you a great deal on its own, and secondly, there are many ways to calculate it. There is no global standard and definition of “Possession”. Opta use number of passes. You can make a case for taking a stop watch and pausing every action which would allow a representation of the amount of time some teams use up to take restarts (The Tony Pulis Possession). I frankly don’t have the time to do this, and therefore, pragmatically, use a simple ratio of the two teams completed and incomplete passes. The rationale is that passing accounts for just over 75% of all on field actions. It is close enough.

Celtic’s 58% possession is lower that their average for domestic games (69%), but it was the nature of the possession that tells the story. In nearly all games, the two central defenders and central midfielders have the most possession, Boyata (72 passes per 90m), Simunovic (64 passes per 90m), Brown (71 passes per 90m) and Bitton (73 passes per 90m). Celtic typically probe side to side against opposition dug in deep. In this derby, Brown only completed 30 passes (lowest domestic total of season), Boyata 28 (lowest by 15) and Simunovic 12 (lowest by 30).

It was Celtic’s full backs who had the most possession – Lustig 84 possession events (50 passes) and Tierney 100 possession events (58 passes) completed more than any other player by at least 10 passes. Celtic therefore stretched The Rangers especially in the first half. Caixinha had declared The Rangers would lay 4-3-1-2 prior to kick off and from the get go Celtic attacked the flanks, a weakness in such a formation.

Celtic simply did not need to build play patiently from the back to attack the home side. Their passing was lower because it did not need to be higher. Either down the flanks or through the probing of McGregor (38 completed passes) and Armstrong (40) more centrally, Celtic could play through the midfield with ease.

Captain Sacrifice

With Caixinha setting up 4-3-1-2, the prime objective of the “1” (Miller) seemed to be to stop Brown ‘tictating tempo. And it worked! The two captains came together a number of times, and with Brown completing only 30 passes, he has rarely had a quieter game (he averages 71). Brown won only one clear challenge where possession was maintained. He won a remarkable 9 challenges where possession ended up with The Rangers such was the proximity of opposition players to him. Brown lost outright 3 challenges. In addition, he was twice caught in possession centrally in his own half, leading to chances for the home side.

The smothering of Brown worked to the extent his influence was neutered. Unfortunately for The Rangers, none of their orthodox midfielders (Holt, Windass, Hyndman, Halliday) seemed capable of matching the movement, speed and passing dexterity of Armstrong and McGregor. Giving up only 7 passes between them, and having the highest pass completions of the match (Armstrong 91% and McGregor 93%), they effectively ran the midfield. Brown’s sacrifice was not in vain.

For the first time this season against The Rangers, Celtic out performed their xG. That is to say, they scored more goals that the model I use to calculate expected goals for shots taken that land on target suggests they would. 5 goals from 7 shots on target is highly efficient. If you take your chances…..

Quality Over Quantity

In contrast, The Rangers fielded four strikers (Waghorn, Dodoo, Miller, Garner) but converted only 11% of their shots compared to 25% by Celtic. Miller had 2 shots on target and 1 other off. Waghorn and Garner had 1 off target attempt each. With Miller preoccupied by Brown, Dodoo spending the game offside, Garner obsessed with trying to get Boyata sent off and Waghorn all but invisible, Celtic’s sole striker, Griffiths, stole the show.

Griffiths only completed 13 passes all game, but attempted 6 shots, 2 on target. As well as a goal and an assist, he created 2 chances from 3 attempts. He lost all 8 challenges he was involved in although 6 of them resulted in Celtic maintaining possession. This was the archetypal Griffiths performance – no frills or link up, pure goal threat. We may only have one striker, but he is a good one!

The Errors of Over Confidence

Celtic generally execute less clearances that the opposition. Clearances are usually indicative of teams under pressure, or subject to the high press, having to off load the ball quickly out of the danger area. With Celtic dominating the clearance statistic, two factors can explain. Firstly, under Rodgers, despite having higher possession and clearly playing out from the back on most occasions, “safety first” is required when the decision demands. Celtic average about 2 additional clearances a match than under Deila. Boyata and Simunovic accounted for 16 clearances – when they had possession they often had three strikers near due to the opposition formation, which is rare domestically.

Secondly, The Rangers, in perhaps a hangover from Warburton, tend to play out from the back with more optimism than competence. Domestic opposition average around 5 defensive errors a match vs Celtic. The Rangers managed 9, mostly due to losing possession in their own half allowing a quick Celtic transition from a dangerous area. Tavernier especially has higher self-confidence than his abilities would suggest. A creative outlet, he was caught out of position repeatedly, explicitly this lead to Griffiths goal. The final humiliation was completed when Lustig intercepted his foray forward to apply that glorious run and shot to cap it.

Defensive Summary

I am trying this out for the first time. It looks at the main defensive contributions of the defenders and midfielders and comes up with a simple success ratio across the actions. Boyata suffers by giving away 6 fouls, mainly due to Garner falling over a lot and Boyata letting his frustration cloud his judgement. Brown suffers from 2 defensive errors as he was hounded in possession in his own half. It does illustrate the generally solid contribution of Lustig. Gordon is not listed but dealt competently with everything, catching 2 crosses and successfully executing 3 intercepts.

I will try this chart out against season totals in future – check Celtic By Numbers.

Attacking Summary

Roberts was very effective with minimal possession. He only gave away 2 passes, completing 17, whilst providing 2 assists with the penalty and the pass to McGregor.

As discussed above, Griffiths was a menace throughout and had the highest combined expected goals and assists. 6 shots with 1 goal and an assist for Boyata. He created 2 chances overall as his movement caused problems for the home side for 90m.

McGregor provided the pass for four shots. He also scored and had a great chance from an Armstrong pass.

Celtic By Numbers Bhoy of the Match

Very difficult to choose and Boyata, Armstrong, McGregor and Roberts had many special moments.