The Margins of Error

A rare and precious away win, and clean sheet, in Champions League football for Celtic. Anderlecht handed Celtic the initiative, and the Scottish Champions crafted a mature and decisive performance. A reminder to consult the Glossary if any terms are causing befuddlement.

Dour Belgians

There is a place called Dour in the Walloon area of Belgium, famous for a large music festival. The way Anderlecht set up reminded me of similarly dour performances from their national side in the 1970’s and 80’s. Without the ball, two deep midfielders screened a five-man defence, with three attackers that would narrow when in defensive mode. Given the home side were happy to cede possession, this was most of the time.

On the rare occasion Celtic managed to get into the Belgian’s half, they became even more compact.

The Pain Before the Gain

The narrowness of the Anderlecht front three placed further limitations of Celtic. The visitors will often shift shape to a back three, pushing Tierney high on the left when faced with a deep defence, to stretch the play. With Anderlecht keeping three narrow outwith the ball, the risk was that Celtic would be left 3 v 3 in central defence. The out ball to Tierney was therefore limited as he maintained a deeper left back position. Despite the possession, Celtic struggled to get forward in the first 30 minutes. Ntcham started to the left of Brown and is the main pass “packer” in the team. Without Armstrong, Ntcham is the player most likely to play vertical passes through the defensive lines and find a hooped shirt. The most productive “pack” receiver is Rogic. He has a sure first touch and the size and strength to withstand pressure. Rogic, finding no space in the central areas where three defenders and two screening midfielders were stationed, tended to wander to the Celtic right. This had the dual effect of a) putting him out of touch with Ntcham and b) taking the same space as Roberts, reducing further the potential to get the ball to the creative talent.

Further hampering Celtic creativity was a nervy opening third from Ntcham. Rodgers values his sure touch and ability to take and give passes under the pressure you get at this level. Ntcham combines the defensive solidity of Brown (Brown 64% and Ntcham 63% are clear midfield leaders in Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR)) with the creativity of Armstrong (Ntcham’s average Pass Impect is 75 compared to 72 for Armstrong, the highest in the squads. Sacrificing Armstrong’s goal threat, Rodgers added Rogic in a move suggesting confidence Celtic could take the game to the home side. But Ntcham struggled with passing rhythm, his passes often slightly off perfect target. He only gave away 2 passes in that opening period, but many forced colleagues to change direction or slow progress. In addition, he was caught in possession once and committed 2 fouls.

Margins of Error

So, with Celtic dominating possession but struggling to make attacking headway, the Belgians came to the rescue. Celtic supporters are accustomed to seeing the side punished for any mistakes at this level. The disparity of punishment compared to domestic football is stark. This season, Celtic escaped draws at Partick Thistle and Kilmarnock as Doolan and Brophy missed good chances from defensive errors. In Astana, mistakes were reflected in the goals against column as four were conceded. But on this day, Celtic maintained possession and patience, and probed waiting for the opening. The Anderlecht management can take as much blame for the opener as the defenders. Spajic had badly twisted his ankle in a challenge, and been off the field for several minutes. Remarkably he came back on, but was labouring as Ntcham fed a pass inside the full back Chipciu to the advancing Tierney. Chipciu stopped, momentarily, perhaps expecting offside, and the injured Spajic had no chance of catching the young full back.

Spajic finally leaves the field, too late. Care-taker Frutos, meanwhile, surely destined for the Partick Thistle job.

The ruthlessness of the denouement of the move indicates a renewed clarity to Celtic’s overall game plan. By contract, Anderlecht were trying to get crosses into the box at the earliest opportunity. 19 were attempted, only 5 succeeded. The ponderous Teodorczyk rarely bothering the Celtic rear guard. By the way, Teodorczyk cost the same amount for Anderlecht as Ntcham for Celtic (approximately Euros4.5m). This highlights the precarious nature of transfer dealings for clubs below the monied and elite levels. For the second half, the home side pressed further up the pitch, and started with renewed pace. But not only are Celtic now more patient and ruthless, they are attentive to weakness. No side has given more passes away against Celtic this season (100) and defensively, confidence seemed to outweigh ability.

Celtic outnumber the Anderlecht defence, and the retreating Roberts was particularly alive to the square pass. He turned and sprinted towards Deschacht, perhaps adding to the confusion in the experienced defenders mind. Pressing is an art, and a team must be well drilled so that players uniformly react to the same triggers. In this case, Celtic responded and forced the error, rewarded when Robert’s shot deflected in. With a two-goal lead, Anderlecht took off one of the central defenders, and went 4-3-3, with the full backs pushed on. The full backs provided the width as Onyekuru and Hanni maintained inside forward positions. Without the ball, Celtic maintained admirable defensive shape on the rare occasions Anderlecht had controlled last third possession.

The first example is early in the half, and the second example is in the last minute. Celtic maintained a narrow defensive shape and Sinclair and Roberts were diligent in getting back quickly in support of their full backs. Anderlecht stretched the game in the second half, pushing three men forward, and the game became broken regarding structure. From 70% possession at half time, Celtic’s overall ball control reduced, but they kept the home side at arm’s length from the goal. The best opportunity was a 35 yarder from Gerkens well saved by Gordon. Roberts won 4 tackles and 2 interceptions, with overall 5 challenges won and 3 possessions won being season highs. Sinclair won 0 challenges or possessions but nevertheless maintained defensive shape. Standing in the right place is usually the best defending you can do! As well as dealing with crosses, Celtic caught their opponents offside 6 times, a season high.

The offside trap is not something associated with Celtic, and was surprising given Boyata and Simunovic have had so little game time together. It worked well, with Lusting, Boyata and Simunovic in particular, being aligned. It succeeded despite Tierney on a couple of occasions. Finally, the third goal followed another defensive error. Dendoncker was put under pressure by the fresh and lively McGregor. He gave the ball away to Ntcham in a central position allowing a rapid transition for Celtic against a disorganised defence. Celtic have been lethal in this scenario in recent weeks. Sinclair’s finish was emphatic and inevitable. Three goals from three defensive errors and the home side with be rueing the ruthlessness of the competition at this level.

And the Numbers…

Celtic dominated possession playing relatively conservatively in terms of having only 9% of passes take out an opponent (Impect Pass %). They were happy to have the ball and wait.

Whilst Anderlecht threat came from long range shots and crosses, Celtic, capitalising on mistakes, could attack the home goal at pace, on the transition. The xG model is a little weak here as the chances created, although wide of the goal, were against a disorganised defence. 3 goals from 4 shots on target, with 38% conversion for all shots, is good finishing – Celtic average an all shot conversion rate of 13%. The Belgian’s best chance was immediately following the first goal when Hanni cut away from Boyata and shot left footed from the edge of the area – Gordon smothered easily.

Defensive errors hammered the home team, with Celtic forcing 9, most of them giving the ball away in central areas in their own half through well-chosen pressing. Celtic’s Expected Goals from home team errors was 0.596, which they comfortably out performed thanks to a deflection for Roberts and expert finishing from Sinclair. Celtic’s 38 clearances are more typically indicative of an away European performance. In reality, there were no sustained periods of pressure, no siege moments.

Calm, patient, organised, ruthless. Words, it seems, I will overuse this season. And, encouragingly, at the Champions League level.