The Lustig Conundrum

Following a tearful Hampden celebration and with reports in today’s papers and hints on social media of likely exit, could it really be the end of Lustig’s seven-and-a-half-year Celtic career? And what is the impact on the squad?

2018/19 Appearances

Despite an early reputation for injury proneness, he has appeared in over 40 matches in each of the last three Treble winning seasons. This season his attendance report card is thus:

A reduction in minutes played but the seventh highest appearances in the squad. He has had some memorable moments. The SPFL clinching diving headed goal, and the late headed assist for Edouard to win the Triple Treble.

2018/19 Defending

Tall for a full back at 6 ft 2 in, Lusting has always been strong defensively. This season he has rarely had to step into the centre back positions. I always thought this would be a productive career-elongating move for him. However, with Rodger’s departure, after a six-game stint on the bench, he was quickly restored to the starting line up when Lennon took over.

Numbers are per 90m

Looking at the defending report card, the key defensive aggregated metrics are Defensive Action Success Rate % and Possession Won %. Neither consider passing but take into account all other defensive actions like tackles, interceptions and aerial challenges plus some others. The good news for Lustig is that his performance is flat – that is to say little change over last season. He remains easily the most defensively adept full back by these key metrics. Also, he made less Defensive Errors based on my (admittedly subjective) assessment. Perhaps surprisingly to some, he has manged to block more crosses per 90m, and fail to block less crosses per 90m, than last season. And finally, probably consistent with the eye test, he is dribbled past more often and has missed more tackles. Both indicative of a slight reduction in recovery speed. But overall not the crashing regression some perhaps expected.

2018/19 Creativity

The full back roles at Celtic are crucial in building attacks. Whilst Lustig has never been a Tierney type player making lung bursting runs and dribbles down the flank, he can be relied upon to provide creative forward passes on a regular basis. Creative report card:

Numbers are per 90m

Lustig has had a massively more productive season with an incredible 10 assists compared to only 2 in 17/18. As a consequence, his Assist rate per 90m and Expected Assists are up hugely. He also created 1.26 chances per 90m compared to only 1.04 last term. What is eye catching is the very large increase in both successful crosses (0.75 per 90m) and unsuccessful crosses (2.75 per 90m). Lustig did not play central defence any more last season than this. But for some reason, he has attempted significantly more crosses. And no, it has not just been since Lennon returned! His overall passing has, however, declined. A 3% drop on successful passes does not sound a lot but is a big drop. It may be indicative of him being under orders to put more risk into bis passing. However, if that were the case, I’d hope the volume and effectiveness of his Pack Passing would go up. But it has regressed. Less Pack Passes (passes that take opponents out the game) and lower Impect score per 90m.

The Lustig Conundrum

For as long as I have ran this site there has been doubt and debate over the right back spot. But the reality is that Lustig has seen off Gamboa, Toljan, Janko, Fisher and Matthews in recent seasons. Ralston has had short runs but not been able to tie the role down. Simply, he is the best right back Celtic have sourced over the last five seasons at least. That is to say nothing of his influence and leadership skills – he is a vastly experienced player with major international tournament exposure. If he is to go, and it looks increasingly likely, Celtic need to replace with an upgrade and in time for Champions League Qualifying. If a better option cannot be sourced, then PC Lustig should not be pensioned off just yet. At a minimum I would also explore him covering the centre back positions where his range of passing would be a useful attack starter. Talk about stick-ability!