The Fight for Number One
Since the winter break Bain has replaced Gordon as the Celtic Number One. This despite Gordon making 6 saves at Ibrox, a season high for a Celtic ‘keeper.
I described in Life in the Old Gord Yet how Gordon was performing fine as a shot stopper. He was saving the shots he should. In the last two seasons he would be expected to concede 70.879 goals and has conceded 69. It isn’t that he has made a series of howlers to concede soft goals.
So, what’s up with Gordon?
Rodger’s was reported as having said:
“The profile of keeper means that he has to be able to work with his feet. That’s our game. We aren’t 10 players and a goalkeeper when we have the ball. We are 11 players. Scott keeps the game moving for us and can stop goals as well”
I showed in the aforementioned article that Gordon’s distribution was in line with much vaunted sweeper-keeper Allison of Liverpool. For balance, I have also shown his distribution has regressed since he adapted his passing game under Rodgers.
Is Bain significantly better?
In the core competency of keeping the ball out of the net, Bain has conceded only 5 goals in the 1440 minutes he has played over the last two seasons. He was expected to concede 9.043 so is exceeding expectations albeit over a smaller sample and against weaker opposition (Bain has not played any European matches).
Bain does make slightly less saves per game (2.03 to 1.94) but we’d expect that as he faces less shots (opponent strength again).
Back to Rodger’s point: is Bain’s passing the deal breaker?
Gordon averages more passes per 90m (25.84) than Bain (23.5). This is probably another impact of playing stronger opposition (Gordon has more possession). However, whilst Gordon has 6.72 incomplete passes per 90m, Bain has only 4.06. And overall, Bain’s passing accuracy over the last two seasons is significantly better:
That 7% gap is over two seasons. This season Gordon pass completion is 78% whilst Bain’s is a whopping 92% commensurate with a no-risk passing central defender. A 14% difference.
Bain has not given the ball away from an open play pass or set play pass in four completed matches. He last gave the ball away from a pass sometime on 2nd December on the League Cup Final against Aberdeen. Admittedly Dundee, Airdireonians, St Mirren and Hamilton Academical have not put much pressure on him. But the eye test shows he physically moves the ball more quickly than the less mobile and mannered Gordon.
It really does come down to pass marks. Neither keeper is guilty of making too many errors and both are conceding under expected goals.
A Celtic goalkeeper will make an average of 1.9 saves a match but attempt around 30 passes. If the manager has two ‘keepers that are similarly competent in keeping the ball out the net, he’ll go with the better passer as this constitutes a far larger part of the modern goalie’s game.
For now, that is Bain.