The Declining Influence of Brown

Attention has focussed on the defence as Celtic’s third season under Rodgers splutters along. Poor squad management, injuries, suspensions and therefore a lack of settled partnerships have all contributed. But is the defence getting the protection it needs?

With the 20-year-old Kouassi a peripheral figure within the squad, and Bitton out injured since February, the only natural number 6 is Brown.

The defensive midfield role is crucial for a team like Celtic who push the full backs high and even expect the centre backs to stride forward with the ball. The other midfielders are generally attacking by nature. Hence the burden of defensive cover falls to Brown.

Under Rodgers his performances have been excellent and he would have been my Bhoy of the Season in 17/18. Bar 2 games injured, 1 suspended and 2 rested, he played in 56 games as a second treble was secured.

The captain is now 33 years old and played between 48 and 56 matches in each of the last 6 seasons except an injury hit 15/16 season.

This season he is the only player to have played every minute of every game.

Excluding the as yet uncollected FK Suduva data, what does the 18/19 performance data tell us about Brown’s influence on the team given the crucial role he plays?

Defensive Action

The aggregated metric for assessing defensive actions is DASR. As an indicator of defensive performance, it has proven effective in ranking centre backs. It can be applied to all positions.

Brown has been the only midfielder in the squad with a value over 50%.

The DASR is an aggregated view across a number of defensive actions. I’ve shown before that the gap between Van Dijk (81%) and Ambrose (70%) is small. An 8% decrease is therefore significant.

And across the board the numbers are down:

Additionally, the number of tackles lost is up from 1.57 per 90m to 1.78 per 90m.

Last season Brown was winning 8.44 challenges per 90m and now it is 5.89, a decrease of 30%.

Last season he was winning possession back 5.97 times per 90m but now it is 4.22, a decrease of 29%.

He is even committing less fouls – 1.33 per 90m compared to 1.71. The number of tackles he is missing is rising from 0.29 per 90m to 0.56.

Setting the Tempo

So, maybe his ability to get stuck in and mix it is diminishing but surely he is still the metronome by which Celtic dictate the tempo of play?

Unfortunately, that’s a no.

He is passing the ball less (completed passes down 8%), and crucially less of his passes are breaking the opponent’s defensive lines (down 28%). The impact of his forward passing as scored using Impect is way down (by 18%). Indeed pass completion is actually up by 1% from 95% to 96% - less risks being taken perhaps.

In addition, he is creating less chances albeit this was never his primary function.

We have to consider the context of the first 9 games of 18/19. These were predominantly the Champions League qualifiers, arguably the most important games of Celtic’s season. Brown has been skilled at managing his own performance to ensure maximum output in these big games historically.

Last season he averaged 105 completed passes in these qualifiers and 8.33 challenges won per 90m. In the deciding tie against Astana he won 22 challenges over the two legs. He won back possession 6.33 times per 90m in the 9 qualifiers.

In the big games Brown has usually delivered. Are those days now gone?

Conclusion

Putting aside the data, Brown continues to provide much that is noble and unmeasurable - leadership, drive, passion. Let's never underestimate the importance of those attributes that data cannot know.

But this is a site fuelled by data. And in the realm of the measurable there has been a sudden and dramatic fall off in performance.

Several key metrics show a near 30% reduction from 2017/18.

The fall out from not securing McGinn from Hibernian has provided a lightning rod for disenchantment concerning poor squad management. Given Brown’s subsequent performances, this receives sharper focus and shows that the need to get in a central midfielder capable of rivalling Brown for defensive output should be a key goal for recruitment.

Whilst attention is majored on defensive deficiencies, there appears to be another critical area of the field needing immediate attention.

The captain needs help.