The Curious Case of Scott Sinclair

Sinclair has a goal scoring record comparable to any striker to play for Celtic in the 21^st century. Scorer of 60 goals in his first three seasons, he is behind the likes of Hooper (82), Larsson (70) and Griffiths (67). He is ahead of many well-regarded strikers too as documented by @TriviaTim on Twitter. But he is a wide forward not an out and out striker. Despite this, he is another that comes in for more than his fair share of criticism. A slight figure, Sinclair isn’t one for the blood and snotters of Scottish football. And he undoubtedly suffers Invincible Syndrome. Defined as “Being an integral part of a never-to-be-repeated wonder season and always negatively compared to it”. 25 goals and 14 assists in the initial Rodgers’ Treble was always going to be a tough act to follow. He was garlanded with four personal end of season awards including Players’ Player of the Year. Has he hit those height since? No. But then neither has the side in general by performances whilst equalling the trophy haul. But let’s look at his end of season Report Card comparing to last season.

2018/19 Appearances

Sinclair is rarely injured, missing one game over the last two seasons. He has been used slightly less but still appeared in over 50 matches. One of only five players to do so.

He is completing less 90m shifts. Less than half his total appearances ran the full distance. Few have contributed more minutes to the Triple Treble.

2018/19 Scoring

With 13 goals and 4 penalties, Sinclair finished equal second top scorer alongside Forrest. He has therefore finished 2^nd, 1^st and 2^nd top scorer in his three seasons. Before joining Celtic, Sinclair had achieved double figures in a season only once. He has achieved that easily in all three seasons in Glasgow.

Numeric values are per 90m

Sinclair has maintained his Goals Per 90m rate at 0.44. For the second season running he is under performing against Expected Goals (xG). Indeed, this season Sinclair could have expected to have achieved more than a goal every other game (0.517 per 90m). His shot stats are consistent and he continues to take shots from good locations – mainly in the box (77% of all shots). His conversion rates have gone up (16% shot conversion is 3^rd best in the squad). He has seen a healthy increase in number of Big Chances, up 33%. This is consistent with the eye test that suggests he is getting into the box more. The hat-trick against Aberdeen in December is a perfect example of the Celtic wide players getting into more “striker” positions within the box. Sinclair has the 4^th highest number of Possessions in the Box with 5.11 per 90m. The only down side is the decline in Pack Receives. This is an indicator of being available for and controlling forward passes that take out opponents. It is a relatively small reduction. All this suggests a level of consistency in goal scoring performance with an emphasis on getting into more scoring positions. He is even offside more often – up 37%!

2018/19 Creativity

Assists have always been secondary in Sinclair’s performances to goals. In the last three seasons he has 14, 15 and 7 respectively. Still very high assist productivity. But this season, there is something gone a bit different.

Numeric values are per 90m

Whilst general involvement in the game has not differed much, Sinclair is creating significantly less. His Assist rate is well down to 0.21 per 90m (9^th best in the squad – even Lustig’s is higher). And he is perhaps lucky to get that as his Expected Assists (xA) is down to 0.174 (the 14^th highest in the squad!). Not surprisingly then he is creating less chances – down 35%. And the number of successful passes it takes to create a chance has increased from 15 to 22. Of all the attacking midfielders and strikers, Sinclair has the lowest number of completed passes into the Danger Zone (in the box, parallel to the 6-yard box) at 0.41 per 90m. And the story is similar in terms of establishing play. He is delivering less Pack Passes that take out opponents. Successful Dribbles are down as well although they success rate has gone up. Sinclair has attempted but failed to complete more crosses. Finally, his Secondary Assist rate (the pass before the assisting pass) is 1.19 per 90m. This is only the 9^th highest in the squad. A sea of red then. Is this indicative of a complete loss of form, or a change in role?

2018/19 Attacking Threat

Taking all this in the round, the overall attacking stats:

Numeric values are per 90m

Due to the fall off in assists, overall Scoring Contribution is down. It must be noted Sinclair is scoring way below his Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) by 0.15 per 90m. He is likely due an upward bump towards the mean. But overall minutes and possessions per Scoring Contribution are both up over 30%. It is taking more possessions and longer time to produce a scoring contribution.

2018/19 Defending

Why defending? Well, he is a winger with defensive duties. And secondly, these is some interest here.

Numeric values are per 90m

What’s this? Sinclair’s defensive metrics are wayyyyy up. Wining back possession more often, more challenges won, less unsuccessful challenges, hell, even committing a lot more fouls! I love finding unexpected data! Double digit increases in DASR and Possession Win % are significant. It is almost like he is playing in a different position.

Summary

It appears that Sinclair’s role changed this season under Rodgers. Told to attack the box more, along with Forrest, he would seem to have instructions to be the second (or third) striker where possible. Also, his defensive productivity has increased significantly. A systematic recalibration of his role in the team. There has been a change of emphasis away from getting wide and getting crosses in. I don’t see this as under performance, more a change of emphasis and instruction. All that being said, I worry for Sinclair under Lennon. Whereas he was Rodger’s marquee signing, had worked under him productively before, and clearly had his trust, that cannot be said under the new manager. Sinclair has mainly been a substitute under Lennon. He is so obviously a confidence player who needs to feel loved Whether we will continue to see the metamorphosis of Sinclair depends on a manager who, sadly, does not seem to trust him.