The Brown Special
The latest The Huddle Breakdown podcast (available on Spreaker, Spotify, iTunes and Youtube) is dedicated to Scott Brown. We have been highlighting his natural age decline in performance for some time (2 years in my case) and the impacts this has on the team.
This isn’t a Brown bashing session. The captain has won a trophy every 27 appearances for Celtic and will always be considered a true great, and rightly so. But Celtic’s failure to plan for a reduced role and then life without their key defensive central midfielder has been negligent. Having highlighted it for 2 years (and please read “Brown: Growing Old Gracefully” as there is nothing I am saying today I did not say in that article) we felt the need to dedicate time to spell out the numbers behind what can be a divisive opinion on such a fan favourite.
This article, therefore, supplements the podcast aforementioned and should be read in conjunction.
Brown’s role is primarily a defensive one shielding in front of the back three/four. His overall Defensive Action Success Rate has stood up well over time:
The problem is the volume of activity driving that % is down on both the nominator and denominator.
If you consider the “Green” trends – i.e. those with positive variance over 4 seasons they are all indicative of less activity – less challenges lost, less fouls committed.
Those metrics with upwards trends are Missed Tackles and number of times Packed. Both proxies for speed, anticipation, reduced mobility and space coverage.
We went onto discuss the collateral damage caused by having a central midfielder with reducing productivity:
Defensive volume has decreased for Brown but the overall work load for Celtic hasn’t changed – no one would argue Celtic have become more defensively robust in the last year. So that workload has to be picked up by someone.
Natural decrease in dynamism of movement – anticipation, speed, action – very noticeable against better opposition. Basically, the problem is worse the better the opposition. I invite you to watch back the European games this season and see where Brown was simply unable to move his body quickly enough to avert danger in central areas.
Natural age decline means weaknesses are exacerbated – ball chasing; recovery speed from rashness or poor positioning. The impacts are all heightened.
Team risks increase due to toxic combinations. Duffy has similar characteristics – isn’t quick; tends to follow the ball and leave space; can be rash. James explained how when Duffy and Brown play together Celtics xG differential for and against plummets. The full back configuration of Frimpong and Laxalt, whilst entertaining and lively, was positionally ill disciplined and required preternatural skills of anticipation to predict where danger would arise. A 35-year-old DMC would not give you that.
Impact on others – specifically McGregor having to cover in a 4231 – meaning a declining Brown and an ineffective McGregor reduces 1/3 of attacking creativity across the team. When Brown plays with McGregor in a 4231, McGregor’s xA reduces by 32% and his xG by 36%.
This should not be earth shattering. It is a natural consequence of age decline and decreasing ability for dynamic movement.
What is unacceptable to me is the club’s continuing unwillingness or inability to properly succession plan. Soro, although young, had over 100 games' experience in four different countries – why did it take so long to try him? Kouassi was barely played. Bitton is a natural DMC but we pursued a flawed policy of repurposing him into a central defender with often disastrous results. Surely this role warranted significant investment?
Scott Brown played more matches in each of his 30+ age seasons than in any between 24-27. Arguably he peaked in 17/18 when Rodgers had him fulfil a limited and simplified role. That was four seasons ago and now Lennon is expecting him to press and get the ball forward quickly.
No harm to Brown, a genuine Celtic great. But time waits for no player, even Messi as we all saw versus PSG on Tuesday.