The Art of Olivier
“Wull ye no think o’ the wains, an’ call the polis???!”
In the type of game more typical of championship winning seasons than 4 or 5 goal romps, Celtic played within themselves against a Partick Thistle side determined not to repeat the 4 and 5 goal romps of last season on this perfect pitch. Instead it was the grinding 1-0 victory – any away win against a top six side is always a plus.
Bhoy of the Match
As always there were points of interest around each individual performance, but rarely can there have been as uniformly a commanding all round performance as that from Simunovic. As the only fit regular centre back, and with a history of injury, he is a precious commodity.
Simunovic contributed across the park, and capped his performance with 2 key defensive saves, a last-ditch tackle as Doolan broke into the box in the first half and another key interception in the second. He was successful with 93% of all defensive actions, which was 18% more than the next highest. 13 times he won challenges and interceptions, 3 more than any other player. The passing was sound as you’d expect from a centre back, but what was surprising is that he led the team in number of passes that took out at least one opponent (18) and the total Impect score achieved by those passes (82) – the next highest was Bitton on 69. Usually the player with the highest Pass Impect is one of the midfielders – Armstrong or Ntcham this season. 23% of all his passes took out at least one opponent, again leading the team. It was noticeable both he and Bitton brought the ball out from the back, something both Tierney and Ajer had achieved against Kilmarnock. It may be a new team feature to try and break down 10 behind the ball. Simunovic seemed comfortable and 3 times bypassed at least one opponent carrying the ball forward, and ranking 4th in Dribble Impect. Finally he was a scoring threat with a header from a corner that was cleared off the line. Based on that effort he was equal first for xG. The young Bosnian is proving a key player this season, but we have rarely seen such an accomplished all round performance.
Marmite Bitton
With Ntcham and Kouassi looking like getting game time; the emergence of McGregor; the desire to only have one holding midfielder; and allied to the continuing consistency of Brown, Bitton’s future looks uncertain. Each appearance this season has been in an unfamiliar central defensive position. Against Partick Thistle, his performance seemed to divide opinion. In particular his collision with Storey in injury time elicited much press scrutiny. On that occasion, with Partick Thistle attempting a through ball into the box, it seemed as if Gordon made an early decision to come and smother the inaccurate pass. You have to assume he called for it, but Bitton stepped in and took the ball off his hands. Then Storey made contact with his leg, falling theatrically. At the time it looked a clear penalty, but Bitton makes no attempt to move his leg towards Storey nor effect any sort of challenge. It is a collision, made to look bad by Storey’s exaggerated tumble. Referee Dallas was well positioned. The error on Bitton’s part was the (apparent) lack of communication with Gordon.
This was not Bitton’s worst moment of the match. Partick Thistle touched the ball in Celtic’s box once in the whole of the second half, but that was the one Big Chance of the game, Doolan free to head over from 5 yards.
The Celtic defence is a shambles at this point, with Bitton not the only culprit but ultimately responsible for Doolan running free. He chalks the critical Defensive Error but collectively it’s a fail. As mentioned, this is the ONLY touch (Doolan’s header over the bar) Partick Thistle achieved in the second half and so Celtic contained easily in the main. You can guarantee though, in a Champions League game, like Ibraimi of FC Astana scoring from Gordon’s clearance last season, one error will be punished. And it is those two moments (3 seconds?) in the game people will remember, not the other 89 minutes and 57 seconds. During which Bitton’s performance was thus:
Bitton visibly grew in confidence in the new role. His usually conservative but accurate passing was in place, but he occasionally (12 times) passed with more attacking intent and racked up Pass Impect of 69, behind only SImunovic. He also stepped out of the back twice to bring the ball forward to great effect, taking out 5 opponents. His on target first half free kick saw him threaten in attack. When you compare Simunovic and Bitton, the performance data is very similar. Simunovic executed 2 key defensive saves, and Bitton was left holding the swag bag as the defence were twice caught out and copped for 2 defensive errors. On one occasion as seen above, there was a systemic defensive failing, and on the other did Gordon communicate effectively? On such margins, some would call for his career as a centre back to end.
Lost In A Forrest, All Alone
With Griffiths not fit to start, and Dembele out medium term, Forrest was again given the “false 9” duties. Two early chances were spurned, with a left footed chance in the box particularly ineffective. He turned well to surprise Cerny with a snap shot, again off his left foot, in Celtic’s best chance of the first half. Memorable moments, but the sum of the performance may, again, surprise you.
There was a clutch of players (4, actually!) on the same xG due to the unsophisticated Expected Goals model I use. But Forrest was one of them for his first half effort on the turn. Add in his Expected Assists, and he was 2nd in xSC (measure of expected goals plus expected assists). Unbelievably, Sinclair led the way with xSC of 0.64. Stats, eh? The most commendable performance indicator for Forrest is that he led the team in Pack Receives. That means that he received the ball, controlled it and moved forward after receiving a pass that took out at least one opponent. This is a good indicator of movement and control – key attributes for a striker. 13 times he was found by his team mates and took the pass, with a Receive Impect of 102 – Sinclair was next best on 87. He also completed 3 dribbles, taking out 7 opponents. Ultimately, he needs to score goals in this position and missed his two chances, albeit both were on his weaker foot. But in terms of gamely displaying the attributes needed to play the central striker role, Forrest wasn’t running towards nothing.
The Main Event
…of the article was to analyse scorer (according to the official SPFL website) Ntcham and Armstrong. This is done with a caution as the number of minutes played this season (less than 400 each) is below the threshold of 10 full matches (or 900 minutes) I usually use before analysing performance. So, treat with care, and as a bit of fun.
Fight!!!!
Unless it is a %, all numbers are per 90-minute averages.
Meat n Two Veg!
Goals and assists – meat and two veg! What more do you want? Armstrong’s better. It’s all that matters, the number top right. We’re done here.
Creativity
As central midfielders, both have been given attacking roles in the team and so creativity is the core skill. Both complete the same % of passes, but Ntcham achieves significantly more during the 90 minutes. He also plays, on average 1 more Pack Pass per 90m (i.e. a pass that bypasses at least one opponents), for an average Pass Impect of 120, 13 higher than Armstrong. Yet Armstrong creates more chances, and has the higher Expected Assist (xA). Armstrong tends to play slightly higher up the pitch than Ntcham, and therefore is more likely to play the pass before a shot, rather than the shot leading to a pass before the shot. Also, playing further forward, Armstrong’s passes will tend to not take out as many opponents. Both are very good passers of the ball, but playing from slightly different positions on the field.
Goal Threat
Based on pure goal threat: xG, actual real goals (lordy!), possessions in the box, and total shots, Armstrong is the clear leader. Armstrong takes significantly more shots, and from better positions, hence the xG. Armstrong has taken 22 shots to Ntcham’s 13. Ntcham has scored 1 goal but his shots, on average, would result in only 0.07 goals. As I have noted previously, his shot selection is poor – shooting from long range, and when there are players in front of him and from unpromising angles. He got lucky against Partick Thistle due to the deflection of Brown, whose goal it should have been. Armstrong, as we know from last season, has excellent shot execution from distance, as well as taking up promising positions in the box. For Ntcham, he is slightly the more effective dribbler. Also, he is dispossessed less often (but is not in as many attacking positions as Armstrong) and miss controls the ball less (similarly, will be under less pressure playing deeper).
Possession / Influence
Whilst possession can be measured objectively, influence is more subjective, but with Usage Rate, we can assess the overall % of possession each player has relative to the team.
These numbers are very close. Both are equally influential in terms of Usage Rate, and have very similar total Packing and Impect scores, with Ntcham just shading it. Given I thought Armstrong would be miles ahead of anyone else by this measure, this is to Ntcham’s credit.
Defending
Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR%) is an aggregated metric measuring success across a range of defensive actions. Ntcham is the stronger defender here, being the bigger, stronger man, perhaps not surprising. A few new metrics I am tracking this year, and some that do Armstrong no favours. He is prone to being dribbled past, whilst Ntcham has not suffered that indignity. Neither has he missed any tackles nor committed any defensive errors. Ntcham has slightly more interceptions, and is involved in significantly less challenges. This MIGHT be an indicator of superior defensive positioning? Overall Ntcham is all about the passing, whilst Armstrong has a more varied, all action game. Hopefully that a) was a bit of fun, b) highlighted some of the metrics I am now tracking against every player and c) provided nuance and context to comparing two players apparently competing for one space in the team, but fulfilling slightly different roles. Still, I hope we keep Armstrong. His sheer productivity from midfield will be difficult to replace.
