SPFL Honest Mistakes in July and August '21
Yesterday I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
This piece will consider contentious decisions from the early rounds of SPFL Premier matches in July and August.
I am indebted to the Yorkshire Whistler for providing expert judgement of these key, potentially game changing moments and providing an unbiased assessment of the correct decision.
I do not always agree with his conclusions mainly because a) I am biased; b) I do not know the Laws of the Game intimately as he does; and c) I do not have experience of refereeing football matches. You may also relate to those constraints. Be honest!
As described in the framework, where an in-game decision is deemed incorrect, there is an Expected Points impact for the “wronged” team and this is indicated.
I’ll keep a running tally.
So, without further ado.
31/07/21 Hearts v Celtic
Incident 1
Date 31/07/21 Referee Bobby Madden Game Hearts vs Celtic Game Minute 56th
Incident Halliday challenge on McGregor Outcome Foul to Celtic, no card Evidence https://twitter.com/i/status/1421577576997339146
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Late challenge by Halliday. For me this should have a been a caution for foul tackle in a reckless manner. Studs catch Celtic player late and nothing of the ball. Having watched the attempted challenge in real time, don’t feel the foul warranted a sending off. The challenge is low, eyes on ball and I don’t see this as therefore being a tackle that endangers players safety.
Verdict - Incorrect decision, caution should have been given.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impacts
Incident 2
Date 31/07/21 Referee Bobby Madden Game Hearts vs Celtic Game Minute 60th
Incident Celtic score through Abada Outcome Goal disallowed for offside Evidence SPFL: The Season So VAR - The Celtic Exchange
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Another very tight call that appears to go against the Celtic player. As the ball is passed, the only part of the players body further forward than the Hearts defender is his left forearm. For clarity, IFAB at start of this season amended the Law 11: Offside notes to state - the hands and arms of all players, including the goalkeepers, are not considered. For the purposes of determining offside, the upper boundary of the arm is in line with the bottom of the armpit.
Using this latest guidance, Abada’s bottom armpit is not ahead of the Hearts defender at the time of the pass.
Verdict: Incredibly tight call to the human eye, but incorrect decision. The goal should have stood.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.9 xPts
08/08/21 Celtic v Dundee
Date 08/08/21 Referee Euan Anderson Game Celtic vs Dundee Game Minute 38th
Incident Marshall challenge on Ralston Outcome Foul to Celtic and Yellow Card Marshall Evidence https://twitter.com/i/status/1424380705728090115
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Watched this clip several times and same verdict reached each time, red card/sending off offence was expected outcome. The Dundee player arrives late and lunges in to the challenge. Both legs are off the floor for a moment, he is not in control of the tackle and this is therefore a tackle with excessive force that endangers the players safety.
Verdict - Incorrect Decision. This was a red card/sending off offence.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.35 xPts
21/08/21 Celtic v St Mirren
Incident 1
Date 21/08/21 Referee Willie Collum Game Celtic v St Mirren Game Minute 19th
Incident Power challenge on Turnbull Outcome Foul to Celtic and Red Card for Power Evidence https://twitter.com/i/status/1429468279727349768
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict The challenge is high, off ground and studs catch Celtic player on top of foot. Player not in control of the tackle whilst off ground. Therefore, endangers player safety.
Verdict - Correct Decision. Red card/sending off offence justified.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Date 21/08/21 Referee Willie Collum Game Celtic v St Mirren Game Minute 27th
Incident Christie challenge Outcome Foul awarded to St Mirren, no card for Christie Evidence https://twitter.com/i/status/1429468279727349768
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Timing of this challenge is just off. Although studs are showing, the challenge is low and aimed directly at the ball and almost gets the ball. For me this would be a reckless challenge.
Verdict - Incorrect decision. Caution/yellow card should have been issued for the challenge.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Date 21/08/21 Referee Willie Collum Game Celtic v St Mirren Game Minute 28th
Incident St Mirren score Outcome Goal disallowed for offside Evidence https://twitter.com/i/status/1429468279727349768
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict From the one camera angle shown, it certainly appears the Celtic player in the RB position is just playing the striker onside at the time he makes contact with the ball. Given the expected position of the assistant referee (off camera) and the fact that the RB is advancing back up the pitch as the striker is moving towards the goal, I can see why he got the timing of the contact wrong and flagged, but the goal should have stood.
Verdict - Incorrect decision. Onside and goal should have stood.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic +0.2 xPts
22/08/21 Ross County vs The Rangers
Date 22/08/21 Referee David Munro Game Ross Co v TRFC Game Minute 9th
Incident Ross County claim for Balogun handball in box Outcome Free kick awarded to TRFC for a push by Ross Co player Evidence SPFL: The Season So VAR - The Celtic Exchange
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict First two clips are inconclusive but from the final replay, I cannot see where there is a push on the defender. Slightest of contact yes, but nothing enough to suggest a foul or an impact on the defenders jump. He seems to simply have mis timed his initial jump and swung an arm above his head as part of the jumping motion.
Verdict - Incorrect decision. No foul and the handball offence should have been punished with a penalty decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
The Rangers +0.54 xPts
Explainer – at 0-0 in 9th minute, a goal to the home team, Ross County, is worth 0.7 xPts. However, the probability of scoring a penalty is approximately 77%. Hence 0.54 xPts gain to TRFC (0.7 * 77%).
Summary
With thanks to the Yorkshire Whistler, that concludes the Honest Mistakes in July and August.
Not a great start from the men in black as of 7 contentious decisions, only 1 had the correct outcome – Power’s Red Card foul on Turnbull.
However, in only 4 of the 7 incidents was there an impact on the Expected Points.
Here is the running total so far:
Up to the end of July, those 4 incidents had reduced Celtic’s xPts by 1.05 whilst the missed penalty award for Ross County meant The Rangers were 0.54 xPts up.
Therefore, Celtic can have expected to be 1.59 points nearer The Rangers, so far, based on those xPts outcomes.
Tomorrow we cover September until the present.