Rogic And The Slopes of Doom
Against The Rangers Rogic was not alone in attacking anonymity. Completing just 9 passes in 71 minutes in his 7th game back from another injury lay off, is he doing enough to justify a Cup Final place? But more worrying – is this a blip in form or part of a wider pattern of decline?
We have seen 1 goal and 1 assist in 419 minutes since a knee injury and international duty over the winter. Rogic is notoriously slow to get back up to full match sharpness after injury layoffs. Perhaps because of his bulky frame, he can look slow and cumbersome until match sharpness is achieved.
But most concerningly, this latest form may be part of a much longer trend.
Appearances
Rogic has a history of injury.
In the last three seasons he has completed:
Season Minutes 90m Equivalent 16/17 2202 24.5 17/18 2640 29.33 18/19 2172 24.13
Celtic have not had 30 matches out of Rogic in this time. Given the recent to get to all the domestic finals plus European matches, that equates to less than half the matches Celtic will play.
It is also concerning that the winter injury curse has now hit three seasons on a row.
Date Games Missed 20th Dec 16 – 2nd April 17 17 10th Dec 17 – 3rd Feb 18 12 30th Jan 19 – 3rd Mar 19 12
It is difficult to achieve rhythm and consistency, therefore.
In 16/17 Rogic played 90 minutes 2 matches in a row once.
In 17/18 he played 90 minutes in 3 matches consecutively on one occasion, and 2 matches once.
In 18/19 he also had one run of 3 x 90 minutes and one run of 2.
Creativity
Rogic is the most natural Number 10 in the squad. In fact, he rarely plays anywhere else. It is a challenging position usually played by the most creative player. Not concerned overly with midfield battles, the roles is like having a second striker and therefore one should expect high scoring contribution output.
Rogic’s assist rate has never been the highest in the squad. And he is maintaining an assist rate of 0.29 per 90m which matches his 16/17 output, with a dip to 0.27 in 17/18.
But the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Rogic is creating less chances and taking less opponents out the game with his forward passes. Consequently, his Expected Assists (xA) is also down on last season.
And it is not just his passing that is declining in effectiveness. Rogic is renowned as a strong dribbler. Although not fast, his strong frame allows him to ride tackles allied to his good control.
But this attacking weapon is again being used les effectively with less successful dribbles, and increasing numbers of failed attempts.
Goal Threat
In the initial Treble season Rogic scored 12 goals in the equivalent of just over 24 matches. This scoring rate of 0.49 goals per 90m included the memorable Treble clinching winner in the last minute against Aberdeen at Hampden. Rogic has produced many similar moments of magic, which is partly why he is held in such high regard by the support.
That rate of scoring was always going to be difficult to maintain, but has dropped off over the subsequent seasons.
More left to right downwards lines of doom I’m afraid.
Not surprisingly, he is taking less shots, and less accurately.
He converted a healthy 12% of all shots in the Invincible Treble season, his conversion rate has halved to 6% (17/18) and 7% (18/19). His overall shot accuracy has recovered to 38% which is just under the 16/17 high of 39%.
Attacking Threat
Whether Rogic is being better marked, or his movement off the ball has reduced, his Pack Receive rate (measures the ability to receive and control forward passes that take opponents out the game) has reduced from 53.8 to 32.8 per 90 from last season to this, a 40% reduction.
He is getting possession in the opposition box 2.53 per 90m this season but last this was 3.34.
As we have seen from the goals, assists and xA, xG values, his overall Scoring Contribution has declined steadily over the last three seasons in line with Expected (last two seasons data only).
If I express this as number of minutes per Scoring Contribution, the increase in time between each contribution is stark.
Summary
Boy do I hate to write these types of articles!
I have loads of data as you can imagine and don’t have the time to pore over it as I would like. Therefore, I can miss trends like this.
I would have expected player performance drop off after the 16/17 season as this will prove to be an exceptional campaign in many ways and difficult to maintain. But Rogic’s performances have carried on down the slope into this season.
By the standard of “continual improvement” it is difficult to defend a position of having Rogic in the team. A fit Christie and match fit Ntcham would make Rogic’s place a tad dicey to say the least.
Ironically, his greatest asset at this point in time, with a Cup Final looming, is that he is fit!