Rodgers, Lennon, Postecoglou and Spain

The World Cup has thrown up many interesting matches and the penalty win by Morocco over Spain seemed especially notable.

Despite 77 percent possession, and completing 926 passes with 91 percent accuracy, Spain mustered 13 shots, with seven being on target but the total xG for all that was a paltry 1.01. An average of 0.08 xG per shot is meh.

There was quite a bit of debate post-match relating to style with Rhodri, the Spanish centre-back offering this:

There was little sympathy for this view amongst analysts. Points made included that there are many ways to win a football match and Morocco clearly executed a plan to limit Spain’s increasingly pedantic and tame attacks.

My own view is that this was a fascinating match and it was like a well-paced thriller. What would “give” first: Morocco’s defensive alignment and concentration; or Spain’s ability to limit the occasional rapid and effective thrusts from wide by Sofiane Boufal and Hakim Ziyech?

My criticism of Morocco was that at some point in the second half, and throughout extra time, they stopped trying to score and seemed set on forcing penalties. Personally, I hate that approach and welcome a win by the team trying to score an actual goal. Maybe a slightly naïve view of things, but there you have it.

But that should not detract from the effective and exhausting defensive shift the Moroccans had put into the match. And, importantly, the bereft nature of Spain’s suffocating possession with no end product.

Which got me thinking about Celtic and trends in possession versus effectiveness.

We all remember under Brendan Rodgers, especially in seasons two and three, the football became a lot more possession-based and the term “Horseshoe of Futility” was coined. That is, endlessly recycling the ball across the back four, down the flanks, and out and back again.

A fair memory or a perception bias?

Completed Passes / Possession

Let’s take a look at completed passes per 90 minutes and average possession for the period from 2017/18 to current:

The trend shift under Ange Postecoglou is that 21/22 saw the highest average number of completed passes (573) but possession was 65 percent compared to 68 percent in Rodgers’s last season.

That means Celtic completed more passes despite having less possession of the ball. All that leads to an inference that under Postecoglou, Celtic are moving the ball quicker while maintaining control of the ball.

The best way to unlock a low block is to move the ball quickly but obviously maintain accuracy.

Verticality

We can measure the level of forward passes through packing data. These metrics are concerned with forward passes only that take at least one opponent out of the game.

This shows that Celtic are increasingly playing more forward (vertical) passes season over season.

Whilst Rodgers put a premium on possession over line breaking, Lennon shifted to prioritise line breaking over possession.

I’d characterise Postecoglou as finding a balance of control (high possession, lots of completed passes) with an emphasis on getting through opposition lines (high packing scores, lower overall possession, more passes but quicker).

I would not worry that this season the packing data shows a decrease on last season. The impact of six Champions League ties on some of the data points is significant. By the end of the season which will now be filled with domestic football, i expect those numbers to surpass last season.

Summary

Celtic is a possession dominant team whose inherent style is passing football.

Within that broad framework, there are many variants.

Postecoglou seems to have found the balance between maintaining control (high volume of passes, high possession) with enough emphasis on completing passes that hurt the opposition by taking their players out of the game (packing).

In domestic football, at least, this is proving highly effective.

The challenge, as ever, is to scale it to the Champions League level.