Resilience Tested by Tannadice Terrors
Up to the end of October Dundee United were perhaps the surprise team in the league, with 21 points from their opening 11 matches. Since then, it’s been 4 losses in 5 games punctuated by a 1-0 victory over the odd assortment that is Aberdeen.
Home form is ok with only St Johnstone winning at Tannadice in the last five.
Goal Threat
Goal scoring has been their issue. One of only three sides to average less than 1 goal per game, their underlying xG is only 1.02.
They rank lowest in the league on shots inside the box ratio – only 54% of their efforts are inside the white lines (Celtic 63%).
Terrors are 5th in forcing opposition keeper saves (3.31) despite the long-range low probability effort, but unsurprisingly their average xG per shot is 3rd worst at 0.1 (Celtic 0.14).
They are only 9th in creating chances suggesting long shooting forms part of the strategy. Dundee Utd create the 2nd lowest xG per 90m from set plays (0.26).
Neither are they heavy on crosses – 16.4 is the 10th highest in the league.
Midfielder Harkes and defender Edwards lead the way with 3 goals each, whilst winger Niskanen has 3 assists.
Only veteran striker Clark would trouble a top 20 attacking players list as he averages 0.33 xG plus xA per 90m. Harkes is next on 0.23.
Niskanen seems to have gone off the boil and various waifs and strays support the aforementioned Clark.
This will be the main challenge for the home team the, to create chances against what is becoming a hard-working Celtic defence.
Defence
Meanwhile, Arabs defence has been a real strength. Only 0.94 goals per game conceded whilst average xG against is 1.16. Celtic are conceding to the same value as their xG – 0.67 – but you won’t read that anywhere else.
They are 5th for shots against (12.81) and shots on target against (3.75). The Tangerines do particularly well to limit the opposition chances – post shot xG is only 0.81 which is the lowest in the league after Celtic (0.72). Average xG per shot against is, not surprisingly, 0.09 – 2nd best in the league.
Siegrist the keeper averages 2.63 saves per 90m which is also the 5th lowest.
They only give up 0.94 Big Chances per match which is 4th lowest.
That combatant midfield core of Harkes and Fuchs (he has missed the last 2 matches) backed up by a stable defence of McMann, Freeman, Edwards and Mulgrew, have formed a pretty difficult barrier to breach.
Summary
This is shaping up as a long, attritional afternoon for a Celtic team desperate to get to January, now beset by yet more negative variance in the form of injury.
Speaking of which we should mention the first meeting 1-1 at Celtic Park. As is topical, this was another game where an honest mistake influenced proceedings. Fuchs foul on McCarthy on 14 minutes should have rendered the away side a man short according to the Yorkshire Whistler. A Clancy decision that one. Hopefully Don Robertson can do better.
Not many goals likely, but hopefully Celtic can keep the momentum going in the league (9 unbeaten). A bleak midwinter tie with no great expectations. And rest....
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