Ready for Take Off

Postecoglou’s start to Celtic management has the classic 3 Act narrative arc, when seen through the prism of xG.

If that sentence doesn’t have you reaching for your skinny latte or Almond infused IPA, it’s the best I’ve got.

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xG Differential

This plots a 6-game rolling average of xG Differential (xG for – xG against) covering all fixtures.

After a half-cooked start against Midtjylland with barely a team, “Angeball” exploded into life with 5+ xG performances against Dundee, Hearts and St Mirren. We’ll conquer the world, right?

Reality bit in Black September as: tough European nights kicked in; Derby defeat to an archly pragmatic opponent; Postecoglou’s first entanglement with the mind of Martindale; refereeing blight impacted at home to Dundee United; and injury to the talisman – Furuhashi missed virtually all of that month.

We were back to earth with a bump. Euphoria spiked. Was the manager too set on Plan A? When would the new players gel? How long can we get away playing Ralston, Montgomery and Soro?

This was the moment to doubt, the time Postecoglou claimed he always expected.

The injury list grew but the results improved. The xG differential reflects this and from a low of defeat at Livingston and a chastening by Bayer Leverkusen at home, it has been 17 wins, 2 draws and an unfortunate loss in the return in Germany in 20 games.

All this despite 227 match days being lost to injury – an average of 6 squad members missing every game. Implementing a new style isn’t easy and neither is it for young men to settle into a new culture, climate, city in the short term.

But the performance fundamentals are strong.

The xG Differential is growing steadily wider.

Are you ready for take-off?