Possession Stats Confirm Ajer Most Effective Defender
Rodgers is big on possession and wearing down the opposition patiently allied to a high press when possession is lost. Who best fits that approach based on last season’s data?
The Glossary keeps things simple and never gives the ball away.
I will look at each position (broadly) as to compare centre backs to wingers is a bit meaningless. This will give a sense of performance across the peer groups. You may quibble with some of the classifications – that’s life!
Various aspects of possession effectiveness are covered here. If you don’t want to peruse the Glossary (and why wouldn’t you?), here is a primer.
I have included players who have appeared in at least 7 matches worth of game time. I’d normally go with 10 matches or 900 minutes but this allowed for the inclusion of Bain, Hendry, Kouassi and Hayes.
Possession Effectiveness Index (PEI%) is a catch all comparison between ALL action events by that player. Whether that event led to the team retaining possession or not gives the two sides of the ratio. So, it includes passing which makes up over 75% of all in game actions and this heavily skews it.
Possessions per 90m is the number of times per 90m that player is in possession of the ball. So, it would not include making a tackle or intercepting the ball where you don’t retain possession but would include being tackled or intercepting the ball and keeping possession.
Possessions Won and Lost per 90m does NOT include passing and includes all other events such as challenges, duels, intercepts.
Net Possession W/L is the per 90m difference between Possessions Won and Lost.
Goalkeepers
The goaly’s shouldn’t really be losing any challenges and giving the ball away and indeed that has not happened this season.
The most interesting take away is that Gordon is the most secure with possession despite the serial groans when he gives the ball away.
De Vries has the lowest PEI% reflecting he was the greater risk take in attempting longer passes.
Defenders
This emphasises the extent to which Ajer has been the most effective defender this season. In combination with the DASR% metric analysed in Defensive Action Success Season Review, he also leads the team in possessions won / lost, winning 5.26 more possessions back per 90m that those lost. He also wins possession back the most 6.15 per 90m with Bitton in second place.
Simunovic loses possession the least but also makes the least number of overall defensive actions.
Hendry, although in the middle, is a concern. He loses more possessions than any of the others (apart from Tierney but ignore that for now). He also has the lowest PEI% of the centre backs although he has played right back for a few games which might be skewing it.
Boyata’s overall steadiness should again be noted by critics!
Bitton has surprisingly good defensive stats as I acknowledged in the aforementioned Defensive Action Success Season Review article. He is also a ball hogger. No one else in the squad comes near his 103 possessions per 90m. This is 17 more than any other player. With his passing ability there is definitely potential for him in that position especially in domestic football. Unfortunately the Ambrose-esque level of defensive errors in Europe could curtail the experiment as a long term solution.
Finally Tierney. He plays so far forward that it is difficult to rate him by this criteria with the defensive peer group! I was pleasantly surprised his possession won/lost was positive. He is pretty much a one man peer group!
Midfielders
No surprise that Brown has most of the ball, wins the most possession back, and loses it the least of the midfielders. Overall, he has the joint highest PEI% of 92% in the squad, with Bitton. It is really difficult to underestimate his importance to the team. No one else does this job as effectively.
Kouassi, in his 7.26 worth of games gets closes to the defensive side of the possession stats to Brown and shows that there is potential there. Although the difference between a 20 year old learning the game in that role and a 10 year veteran cannot be underestimated either.
The other nominal midfielders all play more attacking roles and generally lose as much possession as they win with Ntcham being the more robust.
Armstrong and Ntcham are very similar in many ways across many stats!
Attacking Midfielders
All lose possession more than they win it back which is to be expected. Forrest is usually the most defensively sound of the attacking midfielders and he is again here. Although Rogic is the one who wins back the most possessions – he has a large and powerful frame ideal for an advanced press.
We haven’t seen a lot of Hayes but his stats are fascinating. He is the most influential if you count having the most possession per 90m as influential with 66. He also has the lowest overall PEI% at 75%. He is more of a risk taker, trying dribbles or early crosses.
Once of the issues with having Forrest and Sinclair together on the flanks is they are the ones who tend to drift out of games the most with the least possessions per 90m. Sinclair offers the least, with Griffiths, in terms of recovering possession with only 0.74 possessions won back per 90m.
Strikers
Griffiths has the best differential between possession won back and lost yet has the lowest possession won rate in the squad, and the lowest possession loss of the attackers. Dembele wins possession back the most but has the worst differential! Stats, eh? But it does tell us something about how they play. Dembele gets involved in more duels whilst Griffiths tends to seek space. Dembele goes to the ball whilst Griffiths expects teammates to find him.
Indeed Dembele has the highest PEI% of the forwards at 74%.
Edouard sits in the middle and it will be interesting to see which way the younger man’s career goes in terms of playing style – more robust traditional centre forward like Dembele or “on the shoulder” type like Griffiths. I think he can do both.
Summary
Possession data tells us things about the style of the players.
It shows as well how effective Ajer has been to become the number one centre back pick.
Brown needs to be complimented and the defensive midfield areas strengthened.
In the striker department the three from last season, although all were missing for the majority of the time (none played more than 28 out of 61 matches, equivalent), present a nice mix of abilities.