Patterns of Assistance: What Happened in 2020?
On Thursday 28th March the following podcast was recorded on the A Celtic State of Mind platform. You can view it here or listen wherever you consume your pods.
In the seventh written summary, I want to show you the aggregated estimated expected points impact of penalties and red cards.
Summary of Impact of Red Cards and Penalties
Bringing together the estimated impact of red cards and penalties and extending the sample back to 2016-17 when Rangers achieved Premiership status.
The reason for extending this view back to 2016-17 is to see the trends from when The Rangers first entered the SPFL Premiership given the patterns we have observed since 2020-21. Are these patterns “normal” or did something change?
I would not expect there to be a significant difference between Celtic and The Rangers as regards the estimated expected points impact of getting and suffering from penalties and red cards from 2020-21 to current. From 2016-17 to 2020-21 I would expect Celtic to have seen greater benefit given their dominance in those seasons.
Remember that the expected points model considers the score and time of an event to estimate the impact on the teams as regards the points they would be expected to win from the match.
This compares the estimated expected points impact from all penalties and red cards awarded for and against Celtic and Rangers since 2016-17:
From 2016-17 to the end of 2019-20 when a dominant Celtic easily won four league titles, the total expected points differential saw Celtic have a total of 9.27 xPts “benefit” from cards and penalties awarded/conceded and The Rangers 1.19 xPts. In this period Celtic achieved 73 more league points than The Rangers. One season The Rangers saw more estimated expected benefit, and Celtic’s score never rose to even 3 xPts over a 38-match league campaign.
This seems to conform to an expected pattern given Celtic’s dominance in that period.
Something changed from 2020-21 onwards as a clear pattern emerged as The Rangers’ total expected points estimate rose to 19.2 in those three and a half campaigns whilst Celtic’s total expected points is 5.72.
The impact of penalties and red cards awarded since 2020-21 is estimated to be 3.36 times larger for The Rangers (one title) than Celtic (two titles and leading in the third).
Why would the benefit of penalties and red cards for The Rangers be estimated to be 3.36 times higher than for Celtic?
The Rangers estimated expected benefit from penalties and red card scores are far higher than Celtic when they were dominating the league, almost double in each of the subsequent three seasons. This season, The Rangers trend continues but Celtic’s profile at least matches theirs as of the date data collection stopped.
Crawford Allan was appointed Head of Refereeing Operations on 13th January 2020. The 2020-21 season saw the teams trying to win and stop ten titles in a row for Celtic. The subsequent three seasons saw Champions League Group Stage riches guaranteed for the SPFL champions.
Note: all data is correct up to 3rd January 2024.