Oliver Burke - The Marmite Man
Has there been a more fascinating player than Burke? When he played recently for Scotland in the Kazakhstan debacle, there was a moment in the first half when he sped down the left wing to almost audible gasps from the crowd taken aback by his raw speed. Then he shanked the ball into the stand. And that, for some, sums up the conundrum of the most expensive Scottish footballer. Someone on Twitter (sorry, I can’t remember whom) likened Burke to a baby elephant trying to bring a balloon under control. Made me smile anyway.
The (Baby) Elephant in The Room
Whilst lacking a baby elephant wrestling with air filled toy metric per se, as always, deductions can be made. Most directly I have a miss control stat. You get tagged with a Miss Control if you concede possession because of losing the ball under no challenge but due to lack of control. And yes, Burke has 1.47 per 90m. This is the highest in the squad bar one – Johnston. Also, he loses the ball 6.27 times per 90m in the final third. Discounting Griffiths who takes corners and free kicks, only Christie has a higher rate of final third possession loss. And finally, he has 2.06 unsuccessful dribbles per 90m. This rate is only exceeded by Hayes. In summary: second worst at miss controlling; losing the ball in dribbling; and losing the ball in the final third. Baby Elephant Balloon Bingo!
Balletic Burke?
I suspect there are coaches who look at Burke at over 6-foot-tall, broad of shoulder and unbelievably quick of foot and despair why he doesn’t make every game look like a 16-year-old playing in the under 12s. Indeed, he is aerially poor for one so tall, winning less headers outright than even Griffiths. But the raw pace is so eye catching that it sometimes masks all the other contributions from the player. Thanks goodness I have many more numbers to throw at you, for balance. Burke completes more passes than the other strikers (23.7 per 90m) and more accurately (82% completion compared to 76% Edouard and 66% Griffiths). However, this does not mean his passing is safe. Only Forrest can exceed his 0.39 assists per 90m (he has 4 total). And this isn’t a fluke. His Expected Assist (xA) rate is 0.378 per 90m and only Christie exceeds that (did I mention how good Christie is? More Christie Stat Porn). He creates 2.15 chances created from open play, better than the other strikers and 5th best in the squad. Played by Rodgers as a striker, Burke has 4 goals which translates to 0.39 goals per 90m. This is well below Griffiths (0.52) and Edouard (0.6). But again, if we look at Expected Goals (xG) which is a better measure of the quality of shots taken, his rate is 0.516 per 90m. Only Sinclair has a higher xG per 90m rate in the squad. And this looks sustainable. Why? Two reasons:
No one in the squad gets possession of the ball more in the opposition box. He averages 6.46 per 90m.
EVERY shot he has taken for Celtic (all 30) has been inside the box (Celtic By Numbers endorses this approach). His shots per 90m rate of 2.94 is low, but he is shooting from good positions.
Taken together (assists and goals) his Expected Scoring Contribution (xA plus xG) is 0.894 – this is the highest in the squad! Oh, and what about off the ball? Well, only Hayes wins the ball back from the opposition in their own defensive third. He manages that 0.39 times per 90m. Indicating movement and control (yes) his Receive Impect score is second only to Edouard’s. This measures a player’s ability to find space to receive forward passes that take out opponents and complete the next action. Finally, I have an aggregated metric for overall Attacking Threat called the CAT Score. The definition is:
“The sum of:
•Shots On Target
•Goals
•Assists
•Key Passes
•Possessions In Box”
Highest CAT Score per 90m in the squad? Burke with 10.38. You can make a case for saying he is, at this moment, Celtic’s most effective all-round attacker.
Conclusion
These are my favourite articles as my starting position bias was this was going to be down beat. Upon analysing the data, I was very surprised at how positively Burke has performed. In Assessing Oliver Burke I wondered if he’d get the run of games to prove himself and noted his underlying Scoring Contribution rate per 90m was impressive. Rodger’s decision to play him as a striker was a good one, and he should get more time in an attacking central position. We can’t say he hasn’t delivered so far.