New Season, New Honest Mistakes
This season sees Video Assistant Referee (VAR) take its place in Scottish football as it struggles out of the 17th Century and into the 21st.
Those of you whom are erudite enough to be following this blog for some time will know we had our own virtual VAR in operation throughout the 2021/22 season.
The Yorkshire Whistler is a referee from South Yorkshire with only a passing interest in Scottish football (he is a Sheffield Wednesday supporter so arguably has no interest in football at all – boom-boom-tish).
He scrutinises the controversial calls from the games impacting the top two title challengers and provides a detailed and, crucially, unbiased, lamb-free assessment of what the correct decision should have been.
The impact of that call being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
Last season, had VAR been in operation (and operated by sentient, unbiased individuals) Celtic would have been 5.06 points better off and won the league much sooner. You can see the season summary here -> Honest Mistake Summary.
Astonishingly, 34% of referred calls were incorrect. Remember, these are big moments – goals allowed or disallowed, potential red cards. Scottish football clearly has a refereeing problem. Will VAR help? We don’t yet know given it will be the same individuals administering it.
In the meantime, we can only continue to shine a light.
A new season, a new raft of controversies – let’s go, as someone more famous that I once said.
30/07/22 Livingston vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 54th
Incident Colak scores for TRFC Outcome Offside against Colak Evidence Livingston 1-2 Rangers | Rangers Complete Comeback On Opening Day! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 01:52
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Colak scores from a cross
Initial on field decision – Offside given against Colak, no goal awarded.
As a cross is delivered from Rangers left hand side, the ball lands around the penalty spot and is headed home by the Rangers player. However, the assistant referee raised his flag as he believes Colak is stood in offside position as the ball is played.
To the naked eye this is clearly an extremely tight call and could have gone either way.
Before I give my opinion, let’s just remind ourselves of the current wording within IFAB laws relating to being in an offside position. This will be the context that we will then refer to for any future onside/offside calls during the weeks of football ahead:
Law 11: Offside
A player is in an offside position if:
1. Any part of the head, body or feet is in the opponent’s half (excluding halfway line) and
2. Any part of the head, body or feet is nearer to the opponent’s goal line than both the ball and the second last opponent
3. The hands and arms of all players, including the goalkeepers, are not considered. For purposes of determining offside, the upper boundary of the arm is in line with the bottom of the armpit (what I call the T-shirt mark)
Applying these criteria to the one freeze frame angle presented to us, I would have deemed the Rangers player level and onside with the rear most Livingston right centre back.
I don’t feel it is a clear-cut decision for the assistant referee, but I suspect if VAR had been in use, the outcome would have been a goal awarded to Rangers.
Verdict: Incorrect decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC -0.65 xPts
(this means, as TRFC were 0-1 down in the 54th minute, had they scored it would have added 0.65 to their xPts outcome. Thus, with the award being incorrect, TRFC have 0.65 xPts LESS than they should).
Incident 2
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 81st
Incident The ball goes into the net off TRFC goalkeeper Outcome Foul to TRFC Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2022/23: 30/07/2022
At 19:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Livingston score from an own goal
Initial on field decision: Goal disallowed, free kick awarded to Rangers
A throw in from Livingston’s left side cause problems for the Rangers defence and ultimately the ball ends up in the back of the net. However, before the ball crosses the line, the referee blows his whistle for a foul on the Rangers defender in the build-up.
It appears as if the referee feels the Livingston forward stood just in front of the six-yard box, has his arms around the Rangers defender and is therefore impeding his ability to jump for the ball.
As the ball is in flight, there does appear to be a slight pulling motion adopted by the Livingston player and the referee is looking directly at this contact. Although the contact is relatively minimal, I would agree that the Rangers defender is impeded and cannot jump for the ball.
By blowing as quickly as he does, the referee then stops any further player from developing and so the ball ending up in the goal then becomes irrelevant.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
31/07/22 – Celtic vs Aberdeen
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 56th
Incident Hatate goes down under Stewarts sprawl Outcome No decision Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2022/23: 31/07/2022
At 10:09
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Hatate goes over in the penalty area following a rebound shot
Initial on field decision: No foul given
Hatate reacts first to a parry from the Aberdeen keeper and as he is closed down, he then flicks the ball up before going down under perceived contact from the onrushing Aberdeen player.
My initial thought in real time on this one was that the correct decision was made to not award a penalty. On watching the replay several times, I stand by this assessment.
Hatate flicks the ball in front and appears to have no chance on doing anything with any follow up. As he jumps up, the Aberdeen defender appears to trip forwards and Hatate lands on him as he comes back down to the ground. There is minimal contact between the two players and I feel the Celtic forward is looking for the contact and penalty as a result.
As we know football is a contact sport, and as players hear from me on a regular basis on the pitch, ‘not all contact is a foul’.
Verdict: Correct decision to not award a penalty
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler. Back in fine explanatory form. That must have been some preseason running up and down Jenkin Road!
Well, a shock to start the season. The Rangers wronged! Could it be the big “levelling up” or are sample sizes too small to say?
This allied to the VAR call in Europe against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise in such short proximity will lead to questions in the House. Or snot-o-grams to BBC Scotland at the very least.
Dramatic start to the xPts table then:
The Rangers have 0.65 LESS points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes.
The top two are level on points after 1 game.