Nawrocki and the Direct Command
The very good @StewartRoss89 on X posted in the Celtic Way about how Maik Nawrocki has already demonstrated impressive line-breaking passing abilities.
Nawrocki has only completed the equivalent of 4.04 worth of 90 minutes so well short of the 900 needed for a deeper dive.
But it caused me to look at his pack passing data as this is what measures line breaking in absolute terms as regards opponents that are now wrong side of the ball and effectively out of the game in defending their own goal.
His pack passing score is 82.83 which if he maintained it across the season would beat Alistair Johnston’s record set last season of 82.23.
He also takes out 52 opponents per game. No one has ever recorded a pass pack rate of over 50. Indeed, Johnston’s current record is 42.
He hit two beautifully assertive pack passes in the recent Derby that stood out – one in the 47th minute to Matt O’Riley allowed the Dane to turn and find Kyogo Furuhashi for the crucial second goal. They were notable for their speed, accuracy, and angle.
So minor tremors of excitement in CBN towers.
Pass Pack Masters
Whilst we wait for him to rack up the relevant meaningful minutes let me share the fifteen instances where players have averaged over 50 pack passing score per 90 minutes over a season.
Note that the following player under 20 matches worth of minutes:
22-23 A. Johnston 19.31 22-23 Bernabei 12.71 22-23 Juranovic 17.68 22-23 Ralston 15.40 22-23 Jenz 17.41
I didn’t make a big enough fuss about Alistair Johnston for last season's record 82.23. This is a whole 17 more than the second highest – 26 percent more than Greg Taylor’s 2022-23 campaign. In the context of “fine margins” that is a chasm.
Honourable mention to David Turnbull and Callum McGregor for being the only non-defenders on the list. More remarkably, McGregor’s data is from the 2020-21 season. His is the only score over 50 from before the time of Ange Postecoglou.
I have collected this data since 2017-18. In the seasons before Postecoglou, anything over 40 was high.
The significance of the highest pack passes being in the last two seasons is twofold.
Team style is as important as individual player capabilities. If managerial instructions are to play aggressive vertical passes, then the manager will pick players who can execute his wishes. I have no idea if Postecoglou has heard of “packing” as a concept, but he must intuitively understand it. His players were “good” at it relative to prior seasons’ players because that is what they were asked to do.
As I wrote yesterday there is currently a “directness” revolution in Scottish football at the minute. Celtic are playing the ball forwards with 16 percent more direct speed (metres per second) than under Postecoglou and the whole league is even more aggressive in this trend.
Whilst Johnston’s score is such an outlier it should rightly be lauded, we always need to put these statistics in the context of the time and style of play.
Outside of Nawrocki’s early numbers, the leaders this season who have played more than 900 minutes are:
Scales 74.96 Taylor 66.42 A. Johnston 64.16 Carter-Vickers 46.97 McGregor 43.61
If the Pole gets more minutes, maybe Johnston’s record will be under threat.