Narrow Margins Loom for Lennon's Legacy
A disappointing result, not to mention performance, is what lingers in the minds of Celtic supporters over the winter shut down. The old saying “you are only as good as your last result” is nevertheless a harsh lens through which to appraise Lennon’s performance over the season to date. Let’s attempt a more rounded assessment as I embark on the first mid term report of the season.
Results
This site is primarily about performances rather than results. Football is a low scoring game and “luck” or other factors play a disproportionate role compared to many other sports. Performance data is a better predictor of future outcome than one or two results.
That being said, the KPIs the Celtic board will ultimately use to judge him will be simple.
And on that basis Lennon should be proud.
Comparing the Treble years (how spoilt have we become?):
Lennon has breezed past 84% Points% in all matches, significantly higher than any Rodgers season.
Rodgers had Champion’s League Group Stages deflating his numbers plus an exceptional Europa League group containing both RB Leipzig and Salzburg. Lennon could equally point to Rennes and Lazio being “top 5 league” and both sitting 3rd in their respective competitions currently.
Goals scored per game is up considerably, and goals against up modestly and nowhere near Rodger’s over 1 per game in the first two seasons.
The key optics all look good for Lennon. Celtic won their (difficult) Europa League group at a canter, retained the League Cup and are top of the SPFL. 100 goals scored is another significant landmark. By the most basic stats in football – results, competition progress and goals – Lennon is on fire.
Style
He most noticeable stylistic difference is in passes completed.
Lennon is now getting less sideways passing and as a result the Hoops are completing 70 less passes per 90m than last season.
With pass completion now 85%, down from 88%, less accurately too as Celtic seek to get the ball forward more quickly.
This has been successful in that Celtic’s overall Total Impect (scores extent to which forward passes take opponents out the game) is 347 this season compared to only 276 last. Celtic are vertically more effective. However, they are not taking any more defenders out the game – this is the same at 18 per 90m.
There is a resulting uptick in possession in the box (up to 26.9 from 24.5 per 90m). And, slightly more shots – up from 16.56 to 17.76.
The corollary is that Celtic seem a bit easier to play against. Opposition Total Impect is up 146 to 193. Celtic defenders Packed per game is up from 10 to 12.
Celtic are only completing 6.6 Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) compared to 7.75 under Rodgers. And the opposition are being allowed 4.01 PPDA compared to 3.37. It should be noted Celtic are allowing less shots – down 10.98 to 7.39.
xG has improved markedly too – now 2.39 per 90m compared to 2.18 last season. xG against is also up – 0.855 to 0.949.
Celtic matches are more entertaining – better chances and more goals overall. There is evidence Celtic are less effective at pressing under Lennon, however.
But overall the stylistic changes appear to be effective.
Substance
And yet.
When Celtic are good under Lennon, they are great – despatching capable European opposition easily; the magnificent wins over Lazio; setting down what should have been a season defining and irrecoverable marker at Ibrox.
But on the few occasions Celtic are bad, they are awful. The Cluj defeat was a catalogue of manager and team errors. The Livingston debacle an abject spectacle with the manager seemingly incapable of stemming the flow (albeit with 10 men). The League Cup Final was a triumphant result but an execrable performance. And the recent home Derby defeat was not the one-sided walloping the partial press will have you believe, but was nevertheless a tactical aberration.
High pressing and direct football have seen Lennon struggle to adjust. Additionally, strange decisions like playing McGregor at left back; an unfit Elyounoussi pared with an out of position Hayes in the Cup Final; Morgan at centre forward; playing Johnston vs The Rangers when Celtic had settled into a midfield bolstering formation with Ntcham; the failure to learn from the Hampden experience and cede the midfield; his championing of Hayes and Morgan in particular, and Bitton as cover at centre back when other better squad options exist smacks of favouritism and stubbornness.
All have played a part in bad defeats amongst the glittering overall record to this point and cast some doubt.
What is absolute however, is the right Lennon now has to reshape the squad in his own image. That work begins in January.
Season 1, Term 2
Celtic’s domestic hegemony is an overnight success 26 years in the making. The foundational activity initiated by the McCann regime, and carried on through to the current incumbents has provided a structural advantage over the rest of Scottish football that is vice like. Recruitment and development yield a steady stream of high value transfer income. Whilst occasional Champions League football ensures a turnover that dwarves domestic rivals. A couple of really bad seasons results wise could easily be absorbed.
The major challenge for Lennon is once again a financially reckless opponent who puts the collection of silverware over the safe longevity of their club as evidenced by repeated “going concern” warnings. Meanwhile the rest of Scottish football cuts its cloth and experiences the seasonal loss of talent. Managerial excellence (Clarke, McInnes) occasionally facilitates the raising of standards above the sum of the individual parts. But normalcy is a cycle of develop, lose players, replace with cheap/free and hope to get 1 or 2 years out of young prospects before the vultures from England circle. Celtic’s reward for a strategic outlook has been to make that advantage count over the last 8-10 years in particular.
To be fair to Gerrard, enhanced with backroom talent, a variously assorted collection of players within the largest squad in Scotland, has been drilled into an effective unit. Not for Lennon nor Gerrard to worry about aspects of good governance and financial fair play, they must fight with the tools they have.
As many players have found, it will be in Derby games where ultimately Lennon’s season will be judged.
Conclusion
Lennon’s competition progress, results and style of play are virtually faultless. Where there have been setbacks, however, they have been significant and exacerbated by manager error. His major challenge for the rest of the season is a revitalised rival who has significant wherewithal on the park.
Could Lennon’s legacy really boil down to two Derbies?