Money Makes the World Go Round

Unfortunately, but...

Financial disparity within football, as well across broader western societies, has become a part of common knowledge over the past decade. It is within that broader context that I write this column to lay out a case as to why, even with the widespread recognition, the impact of this development remains underestimated. The relative skew in financial resources is central to the Expected Trophies framework.

Our interview with Sir David Spiegelhalter included an extensive conversation on some of the non-financial factors, including randomness/luck. His citation of how bifurcated the Scottish pyramid is between the 1st and 2nd divisions struck at the core of these issues, as the Championship is one of the most random leagues in Europe, while the Premiership is one of the least random, when it comes to results.

One of my focuses the past couple of years has been to better assess that randomness using concepts borrowed from my background in financial market analytics. These topics are antithetical to the essence of what it means to be a football supporter, and I approach them with that full awareness.

The romance, narratives, legends, etc. that define the ecosystem of being a supporter are central. Unfortunately, those are not central to what is required to become and persist as a top sporting enterprise within a ruthlessly competitive industry.

The impetus for this column is a post on Twitter by SPFL Mediawatch, as it provides me with a relatively easy way to revisit the importance of these factors. The post covers the amount of revenue clubs in Scotland have earned from UEFA competitions over the past decade. Given the difficulty in assembling accurate long-term revenue and wage bill data across clubs, this sort of summary offers a ‘cheat sheet’ of sorts.

I took the data within that Twitter post and plotted it with non-penalty xG difference of the SPFL Premiership through December 15, 2024. This is the part where I remind that this is an analytical exercise, and should not be taken as the word of….