McGregor's Magical Mystery

Callum McGregor scored his eighth of the season against Dundee United - what is behind his goalscoring form?

Thanks to those who responded to the request for topics for today on the huddlebreakdown.com notes.

There can be only one, and John Crawley was first in with this:

By the way, to John’s second question: you can sign up for a monthly or annual subscription plan with the option of a week's free trial. If you enjoy all the content, please recommend it to your friends. You can even gift a subscription to someone special!

I picked this question because it is addressable now; it gives me the chance to talk about xG which as the grandmother of advanced statistics we often forget nowadays; and because Callum McGregor’s Celtic career maps neatly with Celtic By Numbers in that his first Celtic season in 2014-15 was the first I collected data for.

McGregor reached eight goals for the season with a dancing delight against Dundee United yesterday. (Time precludes data from that match being included here). This is his best return since hitting 13 in the 2019-20 season. He is on course to reach double figures in goals scored for only the third time at Celtic with 2017-18 being the other. McGregor compiled 14 goals at Notts County in the 2013/14 season, his first as a professional, as a callow attacking midfielder.

Now the deep pivot in Celtic’s midfield, the tempo setter and glue that binds the back to the front of the team, goals have lessened as a key aspect of his game.

His scoring rate was consistent in his years as a winger or attacking eight. And roughly halved and were similarly consistent in his seasons as the pivot.

This season is an outlier in terms of raw goals.

So, what is happening?