May the Derby Commence

Another Glasgow Derby provides the runway to a potential Treble-Treble. With 8 in a row secured, the pressure for points is alleviated but the pressure to perform will be utmost in the minds of those hoping to appear at Hampden.

The matches between the two this season have all been 1 goal affairs in favour of the home team.

What can we learn from those occasions?

Overall SPFL Form

The following are the overall numbers for the respective teams from SPFL home games (The Rangers) and away (Celtic).

The home side’s form is undoubtedly an improvement on recent seasons. Only 1 league defeat has been witnessed at Ibrox, and The Rangers have won 83% of points there.

The Light Blues are scoring a healthy 2.39 per game whilst only conceding 0.39. There have been 11 home clean sheets and no team has scored more than 1 goal at Ibrox as the away side in the SPFL.

There is no denying The Rangers have been clinical with 35% of shots on target resulting in goals and 15% of all shots going in. The Allan McGregor effect can be seen at the other end where opponents manage to score from just 6% of all shots and just 22% of shots on target.

Indeed, The Rangers only have to face 1.7 shots on target per game whilst generating 6.8.

Celtic’s away form was poor at the beginning of the season failing to win any of the first 3. However, Celtic are unbeaten in 7 SPFL away games in 2019 and conceded only 1 goal, none from open play.

Nevertheless, Celtic have managed only 63% of points on the road.

Scoring a healthy 1.72 goals per 90m they conceded just 0.61.

Celtic’s shot conversion is a miserable 10% of all shots and just 29% of shots on target. With Weah away, the lack of striking options continues to be an issue for two seasons now.

However, Celtic do limit home sides to 2.7 shots on target and 8.3 shots overall whilst managing 16.7 shots and 5.9 on target per away match.

Their opponents manage to score from only 7% of all shots versus the Champions.

The lack of A. McGregor in goal due to the continuation of the homes side’s chronic discipline issues could be significant.

Head to Head

Three games are not much to go on and the one-sided nature of each of them towards the respective home sides makes averaging the data out probably a bit meaningless.

But wait, come back! I’ve done it anyway so please enjoy!

Celtic should have the majority of the possession, and assuming the lack of a strange line up / set up and performance as per the last Ibrox meeting, the edge on shots.

Over the three meetings Celtic have averaged 1.451 xG to The Rangers 1.008.

This all points to another close, 1 goal difference affair.

Summary

It cannot be denied that The Rangers have improved massively in matches versus Celtic even if the SPFL table suggests overall there is little difference in season-long performances between this season and last.

With The Rangers winning their last 5 matches and Celtic unbeaten in the SPFL in 2019 (16 games) it’ll come down to finishing (The Rangers have the better conversion rates) or discipline (we all know how that goes).

Primarily Celtic will hope for no more attacking injuries with more important battles to come.