Making Kyogo Smiles Better

Continuing to play around with radars and this time let’s look at Kyogo Furuhashi.

Last season 34 goals in all competitions and this season 15 with hopefully 10 games left.

The main metric used to evaluate Kyogo as we all know, however, is the expected smile prevalence (xSP). Less than sunny has been the average most of the season.

Whether dropping deep or watching crosses into the box sail over his head, the Japanese forward has often cut a frustrated figure. The style of play deployed under Brendan Rodgers has not been THAT different than under predecessor Ange Postecoglou, yet this serves to highlight how fragile form and cohesion are within the dynamic structures of a football team.

But how “different” have Kyogo’s performances been?

2022-23 Smiles Better

As Postecoglou’s rampant attacking side eased to another Treble, Kyogo was the focal point of the attack. The finisher of moves. His game was simple in expectations and distilled down to getting on the end of chances within the width of the posts ideally in the six-yard box.

Easy to say, difficult to achieve requiring razor-sharp movement, anticipation, and speed of thought.

His profile from that season isn’t that of a “complete forward”.

Compared against forwards back to 2017-18, he was best in class in terms of shot conversion (30 percent) and xG per shot at 0.25. The only other area of excellence was in the very low volume of times he lost possession in the final third – 2.65 per 90 minutes.

The latter is more indicative of the few times he had possession anyway.

All the other metrics are low compared to his historical peers.

This doesn’t mean “bad” in this context, however. This was the role Postecoglou wanted of him, and he delivered to the job specification perfectly.

2023-24 Smiles Apart

If we compare it to this season, you’re maybe surprised at the relative lack of difference:

The bits he doesn’t do a lot of he still doesn’t but with the added bonus of blunting the areas of prior excellence.

xG per shot has come down significantly and shot conversion has halved. Not unconnected.

Result? Scowling Kyogo.

Why Is This?

My own theory is in the nature of striker Rodgers prefers.

Odsonne Edouard was a hydrid, displaying the best qualities of both a number nine and a ten to a very high level when compared to UEFA Europa League forwards.

Moussa Dembele was a more traditional centre-forward but was capable of running channels, was physically capable as well as being a penalty box menace.

When Rodgers was looking to replace Dembele following his departure to Olympique Lyonnaise in the 2018-19 season, he brought in Oliver Burke and Timo Weah. Both were what I’d call hybrid forwards – they could play pretty much anywhere across the front line. They also brought attributes beloved of Rodgers of “power and pace”.

Rodgers was very much behind this January’s recruitment, on a temporary basis, of Adam Idah from Norwich City. Stylistically Idah reminds me of Weah and displays a rounded set of forward skills that you could imagine being applied across the front line.

Idah even replaced Kyogo initially.

Kyogo will never be a complete forward similar to the profile of those above whom Rodgers recruited to the Celtic striking positions. He needs to accept that and allow the Japanese player to fulfil the role for which he has a highly specific skill set.

That is: minimal involvement in build-up; continually on the shoulder of the last line of defence; operating almost exclusively within the opposition goal posts; fed with low, hard crosses along the six-yard box.

At 29 he isn’t going to fundamentally change into a different player. Equally, when playing in the role he has the attributes for, he clearly excels in the Scottish context.

Back to fragility. As seen with Kyogo’s contributions, it doesn’t require a revolution, simply a recalibration of forward play to get the best out of your key resources.

As easily as the magic was dissipated, can it be spun back into existence.

Get spinning Brendan!