Lennon's Celtic: An Appraisal By Numbers

We’re back because this is important. Calls for the sacking of a manager, especially one as decorated and with the storied history with Celtic that Lennon has, deserves special consideration.

Celtic’s form this season, by anyone’s eyes, has been disjointed and laboured. Recent results, a supine derby defeat, a rudderless first half against AC Milan, and finally a badly managed draw at Pittodrie have sent many to the conclusion the managers time is up.

That’s a big step.

Is it justified?

A reminder this site was set up, amongst many reasons, to provide an alternative to the binary viewpoint common within the confines of social media – a player/manager/team is either totally crap or world beaters.

Secondly, I focus on performance not results. The reason for this is performance is predictive. Results, in a very low scoring sport, less so.

Thirdly, I will present A LOT of graphs in this article. No apologies because Lennon deserves thorough consideration. I ask you to focus on the trends not the detail.

I have mapped key performance indicators at team level going back over three seasons.

We start our analysis at the beginning of Rodgers season two (17/18). The trends are 6-match averages from the start of 2017/18 season until now covering 190 matches.

Another important point – this data presented for THIS season DOES NOT include the last 3 matches This is largely irrelevant to the direction of the trends, however!

Do the numbers suggest Lennon be sacked?

Attacking

xNPG

Expected Non-Penalty Goals is a mouthful but essentially is the expected goals (xG) minus penalties which are although quite rare (for most teams at any rate) can distort total xG due to their high value.

Here is the 6-match trended average going back to 17/18:

As you can see this goes up and down a lot – really it is dependent on strength of opposition in the main. You can probably spot the European game tranches. What is key is the trend shown by the black dotted line. This is a clear upward trend in Celtic’s xG.

Let’s look at this season:

Even without the last 3 matches where we know shots on target were like hen’s teeth, the trend for this season is regression.

Shots On Target

Shots On Target are the most important kind as obviously without it you rarely score.

Trend over the last 3 seasons:

Not surprisingly, given xNPG, the trend for Shots On Target is a similar pattern- gradual improvement in the 6 match average over the time since Rodger’s second season.

This season:

This season, up to The Rangers match, this was pretty flat.

Touches In The Box

This measures the number of possessions by Celtic players in the opposition box per 90m as a 6-match trended average.

Once again, the trend under Lennon has been for Celtic to be getting more touches in the opposition box per 90m over time.

And this season:

This season, the trend is the opposite to that desired albeit still slightly above Rodgers season two levels.

xG / Shot

xG per shot details the quality of the average shot Celtic are taking. If, for example, there were more shots but more from outside the box then you’d expect this to go down.

Possibly a surprise to many (and me!) under Lennon xG per shot has been rising. Despite Rodger’s team seemingly not shooting until the perfect chance presented itself, and Lennon seemingly encouraging his side to shoot on sight, you might imagine the trend going the other way. That’s why I’m here!

This season?

This season, once again, the trend is reversed with average shot quality per shot reducing over time.

Creativity

We’ll now consider a number of measures that indicate the creativity of the team. Again, we’ll look at 6 match averages since 17/18 then look at this season.

Impect

Impect measures the ability of the team to break opposition line – that is take opponents out the game with passes and running with the ball. The higher the number the more the team are breaking through opponent’s organisation.

Again, this is highly variable based on quality of opposition. So, again, focus on the trend line (black dot) which is that Celtic have been increasingly able to break down opponents over Lennon’s tenure.

This season:

This season, again caveated with the fact this doesn’t include the last 3 games, is the Celtic’s ability to break down opponents’ lines has thus far maintained a modest improvement.

Chances Created

Very simply this is the number of passes per match that result in a shot at goal.

This is a more modest trend but nevertheless the number of chances created per 90m has shown increase over Lennon’s tenure.

This season:

Chance creation is pretty flat to slight improvement as a trend but as we can see was falling off and would have been a worse picture with the last three matches included.

Celtic’s PPDA

Celtic’s ability to beat a press and counter defensive organisation can be assessed using Passes Per Defensive Action. It’s a complex one to untangle as playing many passive passes in front of a team will result in a high PPDA whilst trying to force passes through a low block resulting in many interceptions and turnovers would result in a lower PPDA. So, I don’t immediately interpret this as good/bad based on high/low.

In essence Celtic are completing less passes per opposition defensive action This either suggests Celtic are less successful at countering the opposition press OR it could suggest Celtic are taking more risks to counter e.g. low blocks. I am minded to believe, with Chance Creation holding up, this is a stylistic measure that reflects Lennon’s more direct style preference.

This season:

My reading of this is that Celtic have increasingly been faced with low blocks this season and the increased number of passes reflects more “passing around at the back”. I am not suggesting it is either a “good” or “bad” thing and would refer back to Chance Creation as the trend to follow. I include as it is interesting stylistically!

Defending

How have Celtic been limiting the opposition over the same periods being analysed? We can look at the same metrics for the opposition.

Opposition xNPG

Again, we exclude penalties. By this basis a league table formed of xNPG for and against see’s The Rangers 5^th (that’s a joke – lighten up people!).

Over Lennon’s tenure, the opposition xNPG is decreasing. Anyone surprised?

Let’s look at this season:

You might also be surprised to see it has been reducing prior to the last week. Well, I was surprised and it’s my data so feel free.

Opposition Shots On Target

As it says – shots on target from the opponents trended over 6 matches:

This is all within a fairly narrow average of between 1 and 5 shots on target per 90m. It does highlight that Celtic’s main opposition are of low quality with sprinklings of top-quality opposition in Europe. Bit nevertheless, and not surprisingly, in line with xNPG, shots on target against is trending down.

This season:

It may also surprise that shots on target from the opposition was, prior to the last week, trending down this season as well, quite significantly albeit it is a small sample.

Opposition Touches in the Box

Have the opposition been increasingly able to get possession is Celtic’s box?

Collections of European matches can easily be discerned from the peaks here. But once again it is s pleasing picture of modest but decline in opposition box possession over time.

This season:

Before this last horrid week, the trend on this had been downwards also.

Are Celtic easier to play against?

Opposition Impect

As mentioned, this indicates the ease with which the opposition can pass or run (mainly pass) through Celtic’s defensive lines:

So, this would be my first long term trend yellow flag. Celtic are becoming slightly easier to play through as time goes on. Definitely one to nip in the tactical bud.

This season:

Even before the horror week, the upward trend in Celtic being easier to play through continues.

Opposition xG / Shot

Are Celtic allowing the opposition better quality shots over time, or not!?

Another indicator Celtic are becoming easier to play against. Over time, the quality of the shots Celtic allow is increasing. That is, the probability of each opposition shot going in is going up#. Another yellow flag given the modest increase.

This season:

The trend this season however is to reverse that trend. Even in the last week, The Rangers, AC Milan nor Aberdeen had that many shots against so I would not expect this trend to be bucked considerably.

Stay with me, we are nearly at the end of the chart-fest. Neil deserves it!

Opposition PPDA

This indicates the efficacy of the Celtic press – are Celtic limiting the number of passes the opposition manage before a defensive action ensures?

Celtic are gradually allowing more opposition passes per defensive action over time. The press is less effective. The changes are modest – we are in the between 3 to 4 passes range. But still.

This season:

In line with the 3-year trend the opposition are completing more passes before any defensive action and gain modestly so.

Conclusion

No apologies for the length. What I have presented is a Neil Lennon team trended health check of some vital team level metrics.

Before I conclude, I want to be transparent about a couple of things.

1. Before researching this my perception bias was that the numbers over Lennon’s tenure would show decline and the current form would simply be an acceleration of that.

2. Before pulling together this data I have, privately, and probably sign posted on Twitter, that it wasn’t looking good for Lennon and perhaps a change would be for the best.

3. As with all managers, there are aspects of Lennon’s tenure that annoy the fan in me:

   1. Lack of the Brown succession planning I flagged up 2 years ago

   2. A certain surliness around notions of modern methods and data in football

   3. A predilection for what I call players who “run around a lot” – i.e. visible effort over quality of decision making e.g. Elyounoussi, Duffy.

4. This season there are some real (non data driven) concerns for me:

   1. Body language is awful from the manager – he looks tired and lacking fight

   2. There appears to be little or no interaction between the coaching staff on match days

   3. The team appears to lack an identify on how Celtic are playing in terms of attacking and defensive shapes

   4. The major domestic opposition are consistent in style and execution under Beale and have improved further

What I hope I have shown you is that Celtic, under Lennon, have largely improved over the last 3 years. Lennon sceptics will hate that. Rodgers acolytes will scoff. I am just reporting the data that surprised me too.

What is also true is that there are some chinks of regression especially around how Celtic are easier to play against, the press is less effective, and are giving up slightly better chances. This definitely needs addressing but if Celtic’s play was falling off the performance cliff I’d call it. It isn’t.

That’s the long-term trend. In the main it reflects well on Lennon.

But what of this season as football moves at such a pace?

There is evidence of regression on a larger scale albeit it isn’t uniform and a couple of sore results on the bounce tend to focus attention.

Are there mitigating factors?

Yes, there are.

1. The annual centre back “who’s available” tediously continued this season

2. Once again, more strikers have been injured than fit

3. Once again, a new ‘keeper needs bedding in

4. The impact of injuries has been disproportionate compared to rivals

5. The impact of COVID19 has been hugely disproportionate compared to rivals

Lennon has ben backed to a far greater extent that I thought especially as no major player was sold. He got his major signing targets. He can have no complaints.

I believe taking a data driven approach what I have shown is that the long-term trajectory for Celtic is upwards, Lennon has been backed, is improving over the long haul and deserves the chance to rectify this short-term road block.

But there needs to be changes especially in defensive organisation and setting a template and framework for how the team is set up fundamentally. Only Lennon knows if he has the hunger and drive to continue. Is he getting the support from the other coaching staff? I couldn’t know. But a change in attitude and approach is needed.

Does that mean sacking Lennon? I don’t see the evidence for that for now.