Learning Lessons From Losses

In 2 ½ seasons, Rodgers has lost just 8 domestic matches. Half of them were in the initial part of this current season. There were none in his first 16 months of Scottish matches but 8 in the last 13 months. What can we learn from those defeats?

Defeats

A reminder of the domestic loses, all of which occurred in the last 13 months.

The one home defeat came with the league already won, Aberdeen fighting for 2^nd and a week before the Scottish Cup Final. All other defeats were away from home in matches with it all to play for.

Given the league table today, all the defeats are to Celtic’s closest league challengers.

Selection

The most startling stat is that although Rodgers averages a tinkering 3 changes to line up per match in his Celtic career, in games lost the line up averaged 3.88 changes. Celtic have averaged 60 matches a season under Rodgers which is around 15 more than any other side. Depending on the dates of Cup clashes (100% record) and European matches, the squad is often rotated. It is natural but seems to be detrimental.

This season has seen an average of 4.25 changes per line up before a loss. Three of the four loses have followed a European tie. The exception is the Ibrox defeat where both sides were at the end of a 38 match first part of the season.

But changes, whether enforced or due to managing the squad through the fixtures, are usually disruptive. Celtic have made 4 or more changes 14 times this season. The 7 wins have been Livingston (3-1), Partick Thistle (3-1), Hamilton Academical (1-0), St Johnstone (1-0), Heart of Midlothian (3-0), Dundee (5-0), Kilmarnock (5-1). All those performances were a struggle apart from the last three where a central midfield of McGregor and Christie emerged. That’s another article!

How has the team lined up for those defeats? Based on total appearances and a little subjectivity on my part here are the appearances against the “first elevens” for each season.

2017/18 Defeats

Note for 17/18 it was straightforward other than a toss up between McGregor and Rogic. I went McGregor because he played more games (55 to 42).

Only Brown played every minute. Brown, Forrest and Boyata were the only ones to approach playing 80% of the time. Four players (Gordon, Lustig, Sinclair, Dembele) barely played half the time.

Overall, the time played by the 11 leading players from that season was 67% of that available.

But what of the combinations through the spine of the team?

The first choice back four never played together in any of those defeats. Boyata and Ajer appeared together in two of them as a centre back partnership. Brown and Ntcham were together in central midfield 69% of the time. And as mentioned above, the main striker (Dembele) played only 52% of the available minutes.

2018/19 Defeats

For 18/19 I have again picked those with the most appearances EXCEPT the subjectivity I have applied is to make McGregor and Christie the number one central midfield pick. (My blog.)

Only four players have appeared in all four defeats with Gordon the only ever present (Brown was also ever present if I included him above Christie). Six of the eleven played 50% or less with Rogic only available for 20 minutes.

Overall the first XI were available only 56% of the time in those four matches.

Again, the first choice back four never played together at any point. Boyata and Benkovic played only 44 minutes together (nervously, at Ibrox). The central midfield partnership that has been so productive (McGregor and Christie) were only on the park together for 20 minutes at Kilmarnock. For the 90 minutes at Ibrox, McGregor was at left back.

The first-choice striker only played 40% of the time.

Summary

This will inevitably read as it I am looking for excuses for Celtic defeats. But the real lessons I hope Celtic take from this are:

1. Minimise the changes to personnel in the toughest domestic away fixtures;

2. Play your strongest side and especially the back four and central midfield;

3. The striker key man risk situation has been alleviated with the acquisition of Bayo and Weah (hopefully). The striking duties in those losses were shared between Griffiths (346 mins), Edouard (210 mins) and Dembele (187 mins); and

4. The wider squad is not as strong as it needs to be to assure domination over the strongest sides. Celtic are heavy on numbers but not deep on quality. In those defeats Kouassi was twice taken off after 70 minutes and Mulumbu once. Hendry played full 90 minutes in four of those games. De Vries, Bain, Ralston, Izaguirre, Bitton, Hayes, Johnston, Musonda all started at least one of these matches.

I think these are strong conclusions to be heading into the second half of the season with. Some of the issue resolution (striker risk, overall squad management) appear to be in hand. Prioritising getting the best XI out for the key league matches will be paramount.

Celtic have undoubtedly faced harder matches following tough European assignments this season than previously. The squad rotation has failed.

The opposition are improving but Celtic have not helped themselves with selection nor squad management in the toughest domestic games.