Know Thy Enemy
By James Dailey
Now that Celtic have earned 9 in a row, it is time to look forward to securing 10. The overwhelming consensus I hear and read with regards to this past season’s campaign is that we ran away with the league, that Steven Gerrard is overrated and perhaps lucky to keep his job. And while there remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding finances and what a post-pandemic Scottish Premiership may look like, I believe it is worthwhile to try and conduct an objective analysis of our biggest domestic rivals and their current manager.
The reality is that this past season’s vintage of The Rangers was the first which came even close to competing with Celtic with regards to a wage bill, as it reached just over 70% vs Celtic’s. The preseason betting odds placed The Rangers with about a 29% chance to win the league, with Celtic at 79%. By comparison, Liverpool were at about 32% odds versus Manchester City at 60% to win the EPL. The prior season, with approximately 50% of Celtic’s wage budget, The Rangers were less than 15% odds, which was like Aberdeen’s prior to The Rangers making it to the Premiership. So how has Gerrard’s vintage performed?
I believe the following data from the last two campaigns of derby matches under Gerrard and his management team speaks for itself when compared to the preceding two seasons:
This data is per 90 minutes of play (all xG figures in this piece are ex-penalties) and comprises the 10 derby games under Rodgers preceding Gerrard’s arrival, and compares them with the 7 derby games under Gerrard. As referenced already, The Rangers have increased spending on player wages from approximately £6.5 million to about £22.8 million over the 4-season period, which is certainly a significant factor. Celtic won 4 of the 7 derbies versus Gerrard’s side with an aggregate xG of 8.02 vs 7.78 and aggregate goal totals of 7 vs 6. If we did a table where xG determined the “winner” for those 7 games, it was basically 3 wins each with 1 draw.
Premiership Comparison
Obviously, head to head is only one way of measuring teams, so let us look at underlying data for xG from Open Play (courtesy of Modern Fitba) for the SPFL league campaign this season.
This view also shows how close the performance of the two teams was during the season and indicates how comparable this season’s vintage of new Rangers was to last season’s Celtic team performance. Rangers effectively “closed the gap” to a large degree on about 70% of wages. I know that spending has been fueled by seemingly endless annual deficits, but that is a different topic for another day. For what they have spent, the on-field performance levels were rather good.
Non-Minnow Comparison
If I expand the data set further to include all domestic Cup competitions and European games starting in August (to exclude pseudo friendlies vs minnows), here is how the two teams compare for the season, excluding penalties:
Given the above data and Rangers’ progression into the final 16 in this season’s EL, I think it is fair to say that Gerrard’s system and management has been effective. As his system pertains specifically to the derby matches versus Celtic, I found the following data relating to xG from Open Play (courtesy of Wyscout) interesting:
In the 2 seasons prior to Gerrard’s arrival, Celtic’s attack versus Rangers was very balanced, and in a lethal way. This all changed upon Gerrard’s arrival, with the right side of our attack almost completely neutralized. Celtic’s mix of xG from Open Play versus set pieces also declined vs Gerrard’s system. It seems clear that Gerrard and his management team effectively formulated a system and tactics well equipped to level the playing field versus teams with superior players and greater financial resources.
Conclusion
While I could see how this analysis may be interpreted by some as a flattering treatise to our mortal enemy, I view it as an embrace of the 6th Century BC quote attributed to Lao Tzu, “There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” Celtic performed at an elite level domestically during the 2019-2020 season, and that should be celebrated. However, to deny the emerging threat of Rangers under a Gerrard-lead management team would be a mistake, in my opinion- particularly if the relative wage budget is similar or tighter than the 2019-2020 season. A return to “staunch” and end of the Gerrard era would be a welcome development as we look towards winning the 10.
Obviously, the league changed following the winter break and advanced stats do not score goals or directly determine league tables. A future piece will examine the post-break period, how a 13-point gap opened, and the importance of Neil Lennon’s switch in formation.