Jullien: The Aerially-Dominant Eagle Has Landed
Christopher Jullien becomes Celtic’s second most expensive transfer, and another where the money heads to France. He brings the first team centre half options up to three with Ajer and Simunovic. Another centre back will likely be needed.
Thanks to WhoScored? there is, relatively, a wealth of data.
He wore the number 6 short for Toulouse, and was vice-captain. And speaks perfect English!
What we need to bear in mind is that he has been appearing for a team in the lower end of the Ligue 1 in France (FC Toulouse finished 13th, 18th and 16th in a 20-team division) and that the style of football will be different.
Finally, as I have mentioned before, what WhoScored? classify as a tackle or intercept may be different to how I collect Celtic By Numbers.
WhoScored? Rankings
The WhoScored? site calculates their own player ratings in a very similar vein to Football Manager. They collect a wealth of data on each player so there must be some whizzy algorithm behind it.
Assuming they are internally consistent, here are Jullien’s ratings for the last three seasons he has been a regular in Ligue 1.
His inaugural season with Toulouse looks to have been his best. He ranked 5th overall for all centre backs with 10 or more appearances.
In the last two seasons he has been around the mid 60%-ile ranking 21st then 20th.
So, by this very broad rating system, he is above average by Ligue 1 standards, with the potential to be top 10%.
Defensive Actions
I measure defenders primarily using two aggregated metrics.
Defensive Action Success Rate% - ratio of successful defensive actions to unsuccessful.
Possession Win % - ratio of possession won from defensive actions (not including passes).
Using the WhoScored? data I can approximate these measures but again be wary that this is not precisely comparing like for like.
Over the last three seasons, here are his key defensive metrics:
I have mapped his data with the Celtic centre backs for the last season.
Now before that has everyone running for the hills as Jullien is in Hendry country, remember all the caveats.
His best scores from 2016/17 would be just behind the top right bunch of regular centre halves. But remember that was enough to have him ranked 5th best centre back in the league.
I have mapped Marcelo of Olympique Lyonnaise. He is the 2nd ranked central defender in Ligue 1 in 2018/19. Yes, Jullien is behind him but Marcelo, Brazilian International, is behind the four Celtic defenders. Clearly Ligue 1 is a far deeper and more competitive league than the SPFL. Celtic are hugely dominant in the SPFL and thus Celtic defenders rack up dominant DASR% and Possession Win % data.
So, I suspect this is a dilution of his performance due to the inconsistencies in data used.
It is not a concern, therefore, at this stage.
Aerial Authority
What is worth reporting is his performances versus his French peer group.
In three seasons he has been ranked 2nd, 2nd and 1st for most Aerial Challenges Won. With around 4.2 Aerial Challenges won per season, this is significantly less than the number of challenges experienced by Celtic defenders in Scotland. Last season Benkovic won 6.46 and Ajer 5.91 per 90m.
His Aerial Challenge loss rates are around 1.4 per season, putting him in the middle of the pack for total lost.
It is likely that Jullien simply does not have as many to deal with. But for the Aerial Challenges he faces, a case can be made for him being the most aerially dominant defender in the whole of Ligue 1 over the last three seasons.
And that is impressive.
Tackle Terrors
He averages around 1.1 tackles won per 90m over the last three seasons. For reference this would be far fewer than any Celtic defender. However, the area of tackling, intercepting and blocking is one where definitions and classifications vary greatly. I am surprised given Toulouses’ lowly positions in the league the tackle rates are not higher.
In terms of French football, Jullien is around 37 out of 60 centre backs for tackles won, so below average.
No Chances
A hint of his approach to defending can be inferred from the number of Clearances. A high number tends to indicate a defender who takes few risks. For example, Tierney’s Clearances rate is usually high.
Jullien ranked 3rd, 14th and 4th amongst central defenders for total Clearances. Part of this is a function of being in a struggling team and so having to action many more such manoeuvres. He averages 6.4 Clearances per 90m over three seasons. The Celtic high this season was 4.8 by Boyata.
Goal Threat
Jullien has an incredible attacking record.
He hasn’t scored in Ligue 1 for two seasons yet the opposition teams will be glad to see the back of him.
Here’s why.
Jullien has ranked 2nd, 2nd and 6th in terms of total shots by any centre back. He ranks 1st or 2nd in that all his efforts are taken from inside the opposition box. And he ranks 2nd to 6th in terms of his attempts being from set pieces.
As well as being the most defensively aerially-dominant centre back in Ligue 1 you can make a case for him being the most attacking aerially-dominant centre back as well. Apart from the lack of those pesky goals!
Benkovic (0.95) and Simunovic (0.75) had similar numbers of attempts as Jullien last season. However, that would have been from far more corners and set plays than FC Toulouse would get.
Boyata was always worth a goal with 15 in his Celtic career and so perhaps Jullien will be an adequate replacement.
Passing
Playing for a team that does not dominate possession, Jullien’s passing stats are on the low side. He averages just over 40 completed passes per 90m. Celtic centre halves average between 65-75 per 90m.
He seems to like long passes which may have been another attraction for the scouts. He averages over 8 long passes per game, and has around 50% success rate with them.
He has ranked 8th, 15th and 24th amongst Ligue 1 centre backs for long passes attempted.
His short passing accuracy is at the lower end of the scale which may grate with Celtic’s style of play. He typically loses 4.1 short passes per 90m which is more than any other Celtic centre back apart from Boyata but with much lower overall possession.
The oddity is that he does get reward from what seems to be riskier passing. Averaging 0.23 Key Passes per 90m, he has ranked 37th, 6th and 5th in Key Passes by centre backs in Ligue 1. Despite only achieving around 2 assists, his Key Passes rate is similar to current Celtic defenders. But again, consider the lack of dominance of the team he is playing for.
Big Ol’ Unit
Finally, whilst it seems he does not like a tackle as seen above, he does like a foul. Given the proclivities of Scottish referees, and the fact he is 6ft 5 inches, he may attract attention.
His fouling rate of 1.1 per 90m is, frankly, average by Scottish standards and lower than all but Ajer. However, in Ligue 1, he has ranked 20th, 16th and 8th amongst centre backs for fouls committed.
The 1.3 he conceded per 90m would see him just above Benkovic for 18/19 season.
Summary
Jullien’s defensive performances have regressed since an initial stellar 16/17 season saw him ranked 5th best centre back in Ligue 1. But remember he is still, at 26, young for a centre back.
However, he has remained the most aerially dominant defender in the league. And his lack of goals belies that he ranks high in efforts on goal from set plays, mainly headers.
Here are my concerns. His tackling data is a low as is his rate of being dribbled past (0.5 per 90m) which is much higher than current Celtic peers. Also, his Intercept rate is low compared to Celtic defenders but again this is a metric that is open to variable definition.
His passing does not obviously fit the current Celtic paradigm of short and accurate but that may be deliberate and provide alternative options. He certainly has great Key Pass data for a centre back.
The data for Jullien in Scotland will give us a better indicator obviously. But he looks to have some terrific attributes and is clearly well regarded in the highly rated Ligue 1.
Bienvenue sur Celtic Christopher!