James The First - Redux
James Forrest recently signed a new deal to 2019 and today the Herald proclaims the second coming. Has Rodgers worked a miracle?
(Note I look at the last 3 seasons for detailed performance data as this is what I have personally collected but some overall career summary data to start (source Transfermarkt)).
Forrest Appearance Data
Season Total Mins Games Started 90 mins Used Sub Unused Sub Not In Squad Injured 2009/10 10 0 0 2 7 45 0 2010/11 1479 17 8 8 6 21 0 2011/12 3144 34 24 9 0 2 9 2012/13 1844 18 13 11 0 17 13 2013/14 1991 20 12 7 0 4 22 2014/15 1511 16 6 13 2 14 16 2015/16 1805 19 7 14 11 13 0 2016/17 1953 24 5 5 2 1 4
Lennon played Forrest when available and even if on the bench always used him. His career under Lennon stalled in 2013/14 as injuries, a feature of the previous 2 seasons, reached their peak and he missed 22 matches. Until that point Forrest’s career and productivity was developing on an upward trajectory.
When Deila took over he was keen to manage Forrest carefully to mitigate the risk of further injury, yet despite that season 2014/15 was also injury hit and Deila was also increasingly happy to leave him out. Deila had an injury free Forrest in 2015/16 but left him out the squad 13 times, and did not bring him off the bench another 11 times. Forrest’s form tanked as he posted his worst ever return for goals and assists (see table below).
Rodgers seems to trust Forrest and although there has been another break for injury, Forrest has already played more minutes than either of the last 2 seasons and we are only 60% through the season. He has only been left out the squad for 1 match when fit, and started 24 out of 36 games.
Forrest Positional Data
Season Mins at AM R Mins at AM L 2014/15 1112 368 2015/16 942 863 2016/17 1396 553
Forrest’s poorest season also coincided with Deila playing him as an attacking left winger nearly as much as on the right. Rodgers has been flexible with Forrest and he has had shifts as a central striker and No. 10, but has predominantly played on the right this season.
Forrest Goal / Assist Data
Season Total Mins Goals Assists Goal/Assist 90 Mins per Goal / Assist 2009/10 10 1 0 NA NA 2010/11 1479 3 1 0.24 370 2011/12 3144 9 7 0.46 196 2012/13 1844 4 8 0.58 154 2013/14 1991 7 5 0.54 166 2014/15 1511 4 4 0.48 189 2015/16 1805 2 2 0.2 451 2016/17 1953 6 9 0.69 130
2016/17 is proving to be Forrest’s most productive season with a record number of assists already, and a goal or assist every 130 minutes, his best by 24 minutes.
Forrest’s attacking output for the last 3 seasons can be compared :
2014/15 – James Forrest - Attacking
2015/16 – James Forrest – Attacking
2016/17 – James Forrest – Attacking
This season has seen career best productivity in terms of goals and assists (0.69 per game). Both individually (goals 0.3 per 90mins and assists 0.4 per 90mins) are career bests. This is despite no great improvement on the following compared to 2014/15:
Shot Accuracy
Chance Creation
Successful Dribbles
Number of completed passes (was 37 in 2014/15 and 30 this season)
Is this a hot streak or is he making better decisions? Playing with the confidence of the new manager in his preferred position (AM R) and being encouraged inside into dangerous areas closer to goal may be material here.
Summary
Whether you would say he is reborn, it could be argued his development has picked up again after 3 seasons where first injury and then working for a manager who did not seem to trust him stalled progress.
Forrest was stating to regress under Lennon and last season was hopefully the career nadir. Rodgers trusts him, is using him predominantly on the right and his form is arguably the best of his career. Can he maintain his current form and put together the first full season since 2011/12 when he played the equivalent of 35 matches? Is his current spell a temporary hot streak of form or the restart of his upward development shown between 2010 and 2013? Ultimately time will be the judge and we will revisit Forrest at the seasons end.