Injury And Ill Discipline Can't Stop The L8 Show
Celtic were utterly dominant in the derby for 63 minutes before a sucker punch goal, injuries and disruption to shape stemmed the impetus. But yet another late goal sealed the victory, sparking further ill-discipline from the visitors.
Control
Lennon had made a surprising move replacing Sinclair with Hayes on the left. Ntcham started for the first time since the last derby in December.
Celtic started brightly with 3 shots in the opening 4 minutes, A. McGregor saving well from Ntcham. Ntcham’s reappearance partly offset the initially effective man marking job McCrorie performed on McGregor. He managed a couple of insightful pack passes in the opening minutes before struggling to get up to match pace until the second half.
Chances slowed for Celtic but the first of three break away goals in the match on 27 minutes gave Celtic ascendancy. Edouard showed excellent composure to take his time and finish from Forrest’s instinctive through ball.
Morelos’s latest lunacy seemed to kill the contest on 31 minutes. By half time Celtic had complete control of the contest. 62% possession; 5 chances created to 0; 7 shots to 0; and 14 possessions in the box to 4. Celtic even dominated the physical battle winning 24 challenges to 16 in the half.
Football, Bloody Hell!
Hayes was withdrawn at half time. He had given the ball away in the final third 10 times but had created the chance for Ntcham on 3 minutes.
Sinclair’s introduction would look like poor game management in retrospect but he had produced 5 shots and created 2 chances in the recent game against Dundee. Such was Celtic’s dominance it could be expected Sinclair’s trickery would come to bear on a tiring defence.
The Rangers had gamely gone to a 4-3-2 formation on going down to 10, and this gave them persistent threat on the break. Candeias and Kent work tirelessly to close down but Celtic were easily able to play out from the initial two man press. Celtic then always had a spare player wide, usually Lustig.
By the 60th minute Celtic had dominated when 11 versus 11, and were comfortably managing at 11 versus 10. As well as a 1-0 lead, Celtic had 11 shots to 0 and the Expected Goals values were 1.785 to 0.
There seemed no real danger from them but for the first time Tavernier and Candeias started to combine. Tavernier had not completed a single pack pass up to the 60th minute. His second chance to combine with Candeias came after a tired Ntcham pass drifted out of play. Neat interplay between The Ranger’s more dangerous combiners connected allowing Kent to face up the Celtic defence with no cover. Kent skipped past Boyata with ease. Lustig and Ajer were unable to cover. With their first shot of the match the equaliser arrived.
Talk about a goal out of nothing!
Celtic were then severely tested. Rogic replacing Ntcham made sense in that the French player was visibly tiring after starting the second half well.
We know that Rogic takes a long time to get up to match speed. The sum total of his 26-minute contribution was:
5 completed passes;
3 challenges lost outright;
1 foul conceded.
That’s it.
Misfortune then struck as Tierney broke down (should he have started?) on 70 minutes and Boyata pulled his hamstring on 74 minutes. There were many negative impacts because of all this:
Celtic were down to 10;
Lustig, who had found space well on the right had to move into the centre;
McGregor had to go to left back;
Rogic had to play deeper and central which is not his comfort one, especially when half fit;
Other attacking options could not be deployed.
With both McGregor and Ntcham removed from central midfield, Celtic stopped completing pack passes. After the 60th minute there were only 5 and 3 of those were simply breaking the initial pressing from the two forwards.
Quality Tells
Despite this The Rangers were restricted to brief flurries of activity. They were particularly wasteful in the Celtic defensive third. The visitors gave up possession 22 times in the final third in the second half whilst manufacturing only 3 chances and 4 shots. There were also a couple of dangerous moments as Bain parried Kent’s cross and Ajer blocked. Then Tavernier tried to cross instead of shoot in the final moments.
I do have a stat for this! Final Third Effectiveness measures entries to the opposition final third and the extent to which positive outcomes (shots created; corners won) accrue. The Rangers had a Final Third Effectiveness rating of 11% which is less than half the opposition average of 24% over the season.
Celtic managed to create something from their final third entries 22% of the time. When Tavernier was sloppy with a pass back on 86 minutes, the speed and accuracy of McGregor, Eduard and finally Forrest provided the winning goal.
Celtic Dominance
The Rangers have provided a stern test to Celtic this season in their three encounters. But Celtic created far more chances in this one than the previous encounters and the final key metrics illustrate this:
Systemic Ill Discipline
The Rangers cause was once again hindered by the poor discipline of their players. The 37 disciplinary points accumulated in the match is the highest Celtic have faced all season. This does not include Kent’s subsequent red card.
Apart from the Morelos elbow there was very little needle in the game until Celtic scored their winner. Then you have one team knowing their season is over and disappointed to lose the game and the league to their rivals. Some could not control their frustration.
If you include Kent’s red, that means they have racked up 12 red cards this season. This matches the Arsenal team of 2001/02 rated the “dirtiest season ever” by The Knowledge in the Guardian. The Rangers are well on course to eclipse Wenger’s sides “achievements”.
This club has a real discipline problem, and with Gerrard banned as well, it starts in the manager’s office.
Summary
Celtic seemed to have too many players at once struggling with fitness – Lustig, Tierney, Boyata Ntcham and then Rogic. A game that was under utter control unravelled as football matches sometimes can do when one chance is well taken. Then injuries and disruption occurred.
However, Celtic had that final third quality when it mattered to score their 13th goal within the final 10 minutes in the last 11 matches.
It is now seven times this season Celtic have scored game winning goals in the last 10 minutes.
That’s why their champions.