In Defence of Edouard

BT Sport analyst and former Celt centre forward Chris Sutton was coruscating in his constant criticism of Edouard against FC Salzburg. He has pulled the Frenchman up for lack of movement and perceived inability to hold the ball up.

With Edouard hobbling off against Motherwell, and despite the prognosis looking like a short injury outage, it leaves Celtic down to 0 fit and available senior strikers. Whilst this is terrible squad management, it throws into focus Edouard’s worth to the team. He is Celtic’s record signing at a reported £9m. Is that fee a millstone or an accurate reflection of contribution?

Fortunately, we recently had a similarly aged French centre forward against which to bench mark. Dembele left in the summer for Olympique Lyonnaise for £19.7m.

Is Sutton right, and how valuable is Edouard to Celtic?

Goals

Dembele joined Celtic in June 2016, aged 20, the same age Edouard is now. He scored 32 goals in his first season but 8 of those were penalties. I remove those from the analysis as the probability of a penalty being scored is the same regardless of the taker – i.e. it is a distinct skill.

Removing penalties altogether Dembele scored 38 for Celtic compared to 24 so far for Edouard.

However, the younger player has the better strike rate. He is scoring 0.08 more goals per 90m than the Lyon man managed.

When we consider Expected Goals, however, a slightly different picture emerges. Dembele was converting at a rate just under his xG at 0.59 per 90m compared to his actual rate of 0.55.

Meanwhile Edouard has been out performing his xG. Expected to score at the rate of 0.5 goals per 90m he is achieving 0.63. This usually results in a revision towards the average over time. Namely, we can expect to see Edouard’s actual scoring rate move closer to his xG rate.

Edouard’s superior strike rate is despite attempting less shots. Dembele attempts 4.26 shots per 90m compared to 2.99 from Edouard. You might think you don’t win the lottery if you don’t enter, but there is something to be said for economy and accuracy.

Edouard and Dembele have almost the same level of shot accuracy with 45% and 44% shots hitting the target respectively. But the younger man’s more circumspect approach to shot selection results in him massively out converting his older French international colleague. Edouard converts 47% of shots that hit the target compared to 29% by Dembele. He converts 21% of ALL his shots compared to 13% by Dembele.

In summary, and although he is over performing on his xG, Edouard is clearly the more selective and precise striker. Despite Dembele taking many more shots per 90m than Edouard, the current Celt took 2.75 shots in the box per 90m compared to 2.69 by Dembele. The challenge for Edouard is to get more shots off but from similar positions.

Creativity

The modern striker is not all about goals of course. Leading the line means bringing others into play, and also pulling into the channels and feeding breaking midfielders.

Both players have very similar pass success rates. Both complete just over 18 passes per 90m at a success rate of 76% (Dembele) and 75% (Edouard).

Dembele delivers assists at a higher rate, out creating Edouard by 0.05 assists per 90m.

Both players are outperforming their Expected Assists value (xA). Dembele achieved 0.36 assist per 90m compared to xA of 0.26. Edouard achieves 0.29 compared to xA of 0.21 per 90m.

Dembele created more chances overall, managing 1.69 per 90m compared to 1.54 for Edouard.

Dembele has an edge in creativity. He is more comfortable in the single striker role both have been required to play. Edouard’s general play suggests he would be more comfortable coming in from wide or at least deeper.

Hold Up Play

As seen above there is virtually no difference in their respective passing attributes.

Dembele is the more physically robust of the two and was involved in more challenges overall – 11.51 per 90m whilst Edouard engage in 9.19. Overall though Dembele is successful winning 20% of his tackles and aerial duels and Edouard 16%.

The younger player loses the ball though miss control 1.76 times per 90m and the more physical Dembele had an equivalent rate of 1.42 per 90m.

Dembele had a grounding in arguably the most gruelling league in the world - the English Championship. Edouard still has plenty of development to come.

Conclusion

There can be no doubt young Edouard is under huge pressure being the club’s record singing and then having to carry the fight on his own up front game after game. The pressure at Celtic is to win every match and for the strikers to score plenty of goals. The reality is that he is performing at a level not far below a £20 million striker 1 ½ years his senior. He needs support and that will surely be forthcoming in the next transfer window.

Edouard outscores Dembele but there is evidence that over the long term his rate will decrease. Dembele was slightly more creative and more robust physically and able to hold the ball up better. In total, Edouard has an Expected Scoring Contribution of 0.92 per 90m and Dembele 0.91! Sutton is right in that Edouard can continue to develop that part of his game, but similarly his black and white criticism is un founded.

Edouard is doing a fine job given the circumstances and all the signs are that he will eventually be at least the equal of his French U21 colleague.