Honest Mistakes Weeks 30 and 31 - A Ragin' We Will Go!
This edition covers fixtures on the 1st, 2nd and 8th of April 2023 - match days 30 and 31.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
01/04/23 The Rangers vs Dundee United
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute Score At Time 1-0
Incident Tillman goes down in the box Outcome No decision Evidence (1) Rangers 2-0 Dundee United | Malik Tillman Shines In Dominant Performance | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Birighitti parries a shot and Tillman stretches to get to the rebound before the keeper can recover in time. Tillman clearly contacts the ball first, whilst also under pressure from a Dundee Utd defender. The keeper’s outstretched arms do not make any contact with the ball, but crucially nor do they contact Tillman.
The Rangers attacker simply jumps into the air, perhaps anticipating more meaningful contact or simply trying to buy a soft penalty decision from the referee.
The referee rightly dismisses the appeal as no foul is made here.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute Score At Time 2-0
Incident Morelos goes down in the box Outcome No decision Evidence (1) Rangers 2-0 Dundee United | Malik Tillman Shines In Dominant Performance | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 3:45
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict A Rangers shot is deflected onwards and is it spirals downwards back into the 6-yard box. Several players, including Morelos, anticipate where the ball will fall. Morelos and a Dundee Utd defender are competing to stand in the same space and the defender’s arms do come out as he sets his body position accordingly. There is minimal contact into Morelos, but certainly nothing that warrants the dramatic jump that Morelos then performs.
I’m comfortable that slight upper body contact seen does not constitute a push and that no fouls is committed here.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute Score At Time 2-0
Incident High ball comes into box Outcome After VAR check, no handball detected Evidence (1) Rangers 2-0 Dundee United | Malik Tillman Shines In Dominant Performance | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 4:50
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict A Dundee Utd & Rangers play both jump in close proximity and it is the Dundee Utd player who wins the header, but the ball then appears to ricochet onto his right arm immediately after. This is one of those clips where we can see there is clearly ball to arm contact, but the contact is purely accidental. His right arm is slightly extended as part of his natural body shape when attempting to head the ball. As such this is body shape is expected as part of his body movement for that scenario and so should not have been judged as a foul.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
02/04/23 Ross County vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 45th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Carter-Vickers and Iacovitti challenge for a corner Outcome Penalty to Celtic for handball on VAR review Evidence Ross County 0-2 Celtic | Bernabei Rocket Seals The Three Points | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:30
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict A Celtic corner is delivered into the box and the two players both compete to win the header. Initially there is very little player reaction to suggest a foul has been committed. At full speed I was also comfortable with the referee’s decision not to award the penalty as I did not see anything wrong either.
However, under VAR review a slightly different picture is painted. Carter Vickers wins the race to the header and as Iacovitti challenges his left arm is fully extended outwards. He is very tight to his man so that the ball almost instantly then hits the outstretched arm of the defender, as it comes off the glancing header from the Celtic man.
Due to proximity of the two players this secondary contact is almost impossible to detect at full speed, especially from the referee’s position where he wouldn’t see Iacovitti’s arm as it directly behind the Celtic man.
In any competition without VAR in operation, I would say the referee has every right not to award the handball, but under the microscope of VAR scrutiny, you cannot class Iacovittis’ outstretched arm as a naturally expected body shape specific to that situation. If the ball does not hit the outstretched arm, it would have continued into the danger area.
Harsh on the defender to an extent, but in law, the correct decision is given.
VERDICT: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
08/04/23 Celtic vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 20th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Morelos scores for TRFC Outcome VAR review supports on field decision to disallow goal Evidence (1) Celtic 3-2 Rangers | Furuhashi The Hero In Dramatic Old Firm Derby! | cinch Premiership - YouTube and https://twitter.com/CfcLavs/status/1645704173160128513?s=20
At 00:43
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict A Rangers corner is crossed in. Morelos and Johnston compete for the ball, and it is Morelos who wins the contest and pokes the ball home from close range.
The referee, who is well positioned, immediately signals for a defensive free kick, and disallows the goal. Interesting decision here, as my first thought in real time was that I was struggling to see where any clear foul had been committed. Even upon watching the replays, I don’t feel Morelos does a great deal wrong here. We see both players with their arms on each other, that element of physical contact we are used to seeing in the game, evident from one of many set pieces. Neither player oversteps the mark in terms of unfair grappling/pushing. It is my belief that the mutual grabbing here sees the Celtic defender slightly off balance as he twists mid-air to attempt to head the ball.
Yes, Morelos has his arms on him but there is not enough for a clear push here and I feel the referee has made the wrong call here. Due to the upper body contact made by both players being a subjective decision here, is why VAR does not intervene. They would say that it’s the referee’s opinion as to the element of contact being made constituting a foul or not. As no clear and obvious error has occurred, they will have not recommended an on-field review.
If the goal had been awarded, I suspect the same thought process would have applied and the goal would not have been disallowed by VAR either.
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Goal should have stood.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic +0.6 xPts
TRFC -0.6 xPts
Incident 2
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 38th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Raskin and McGregor clash Outcome YC to both Raskin and McGregor Evidence
Celtic 3-2 Rangers | Furuhashi The Hero In Dramatic Old Firm Derby! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
https://twitter.com/CfcLavs/status/1645704173160128513?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Tempers flare after an initial foul on Johnston.
Raskin & McGregor both shown a yellow card for adopting aggressive attitudes. The referee has probably shown the yellow cards to help maintain his match control. Neither player particularly acts worse than the other. The referee could have given them both a public rebuke rather than show the yellow cards.
But as both players are sanctioned equally, I’m comfortable with the on-field decision at the time.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 51st Score At Time 1-1
Incident Morelos header is blocked from a corner Outcome No decision Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2022/23: 08/04/2023
At 9:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Morelos gets a header off at goal which is blocked by his own teammate. There is a question of a possible infringement by the Celtic man challenging Morelos at the time.
Like the disallowed Morelos goal, I see mutual contact/grappling from both players but nothing that oversteps the mark and so am comfortable no foul committed here.
Also, Taylor was marking Jack very closely with his arms either side of him, but at no time is there a clear pull or infringement here either. Jack is simply occupying the space to distract the Celtic defence and you can tell by his own lack of a reaction, that he has not been impeded here.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 4
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 53rd Score At Time 1-1
Incident Furuhashi and Davies clash off the ball Outcome No decision Evidence https://twitter.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1645528431717928960?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict An off the ball coming together here as both players swerve to chase a long ball over the top. Davies does make what I believe accidental upper body contact, but Furuhashi goes to ground very easily here. Davies does not look at the Celtic player and there is no intent whatsoever.
Not every piece of contact is a foul and again I am comfortable that no foul is awarded here.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 5
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 62nd Score At Time 1-1
Incident Furuhashi scores for Celtic after ball falls off Jota Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence (1) Celtic 3-2 Rangers | Furuhashi The Hero In Dramatic Old Firm Derby! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 3:02
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Slight question of offside in the build up to this goal but a quick review indicates the Celtic wide man is level as the pass is made.
Also looked at a possible handball against Jota prior to Furuhashi scoring. Again, the ball is headed at him from incredibly close range and his arms are tucked in as opposed to being extended. The only way this would have been interpreted as a foul is if Jota was adjudged to have handled the ball even accidentally and he himself had scored the goal.
As we know accidental handball contact (if it even it his hand which is questionable) that then leads to any other player scoring the goal is not penalised as an offence.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the goal
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 6
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 81st Score At Time 3-2
Incident Oh goes down in the box under challenge from Souttar Outcome No decision Evidence https://twitter.com/Sloany2022/status/1645141730549702657?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Oh cuts inside into the oncoming challenge and goes to ground very easily.
Oh changes his direction and as a consequence runs into the path of the incoming Souttar. It’s not that Souttar mis times a tackle but rather he is not making any attempt to tackle. The defender is simply running to get back and cover and Oh tries to run into a space Souttar has just occupied at the same time. There appears to be a hand in the back of Oh, but this is not a push and Oh is already going to ground easily before there is any contact from the arm. It is not a push and as such no foul is committed in my opinion.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION not to award a foul
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Despite the noise following the Derby, Kevin Clancy appears to have got nearly all the calls correct. The disallowed Alfredo Morelos goal seems to have authorised a highly coordinated and personalised attack on the referee. The YW thinks he got that wrong. Fair enough. You and I may not agree but I am confident no threats of violence will be made on the back of that disappointment.
As with Kyogo Furuhashi’s contested winner against Heart of Midlothian last season, it seems Celtic catching a break with a big call in a major game unleashes considerable anxiety amongst certain sections of Scottish football. All very revealing.
It remains the case that this is the first bad call impacting The Rangers since 27th August 2022 when Ross County should have conceded a penalty at Ibrox.
It is the first major call in a big game since John Lundstram’s sending off at Hibernian on the 20th August 2022.
I suspect the prevailing pattern will remain unchanged especially as Scottish referees now see the unchallenged consequences of perceived poor calls.
In terms of impact on the expected points picture:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 4.39 MORE expected points due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 3.52 LESS.
A swing of 7.91 xPts.
Celtic lead by 12 points and 29 goals after 31 matches.