Honest Mistakes - Weeks 24 and 25
This edition covers two SPFL fixture cards. On 1st February Celtic took on Livingston whilst The Rangers travelled to Tynecastle.
4th and 5th February saw The Rangers entertain Ross County whilst Celtic took their tractor to Perth.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
01/02/23 Hearts vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 51st Score At Time 0-2
Incident Kent goes down in the box Outcome Penalty to TRFC overturned by VAR to foul to Hearts and YC for Kent Evidence (2) Hearts 0-3 Rangers | Brilliant Morelos Brace! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:37
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Kent goes down in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Rangers, but then over turned after VAR review and Kent cautioned for simulation.
Kent drives onto the box and the Hearts defender stretches to block the ball. Kent goes down under the challenge and a penalty is initially awarded. Looked a soft foul at first view. Replays fully support the decision to overturn the penalty award and I would agree with the simulation caution as well. Kent appears to throw his left leg out toward the Hearts player before dropping to the ground trying to win a penalty decision. Great example here of when VAR should intervene.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 90th Score At Time 0-3
Incident Ball hits Goldson in the box Outcome No decision Evidence (2) Hearts 0-3 Rangers | Brilliant Morelos Brace! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 5:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball hits Goldson in the penalty area.
Initial on field decision: No foul committed.
Hearts player chips ball across box, Goldson unchallenged runs at ball and possibly misjudges the spin of the ball and it kicks up whilst he’s mid run. Yes, his right arm is raised slightly, but both angles would suggest the ball bounces up and hits him in the chest rather than arm and I’m happy with the non-foul decision here.
Verdict: Correct decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
05/02/23 St Johnstone vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 13th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Considine scores an own goal Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence (2) St. Johnstone 1-4 Celtic | Unbeatable Celtic With Strong Away Display |cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 0:01
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Considine scores an own goal
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic.
Celtic spring the offside trap down right-hand side before ball is crossed and Considine unfortunately turns ball into his own net. There is a question about the Kyogo being off side in the build up here. As discussed in previous weeks’ reviews, we know players stood in an offside position when the ball is played are not committing an offence unless they are deemed to be ‘active’. In this incident Kyogo does not interfere with Considine as he is not impacting or preventing the defender from playing the ball, nor is there any obvious action carried out by Kyogo that impacts on Considine ability to play the ball. It’s just a good old fashioned misjudged attempt to clear the danger.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 90th Score At Time 1-3
Incident Considine brings down Oh Outcome Free kick to Celtic and RC to Considine Evidence (2) St. Johnstone 1-4 Celtic | Unbeatable Celtic With Strong Away Display |cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 4:28
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Considine brings down Oh
Initial on field decision: Free kick awarded to Celtic and Considine is sent off for a DOGSO offence (denying an obvious goal scoring opportunity).
The Celtic forward spins and deceives Considine, who then wraps both arms around his waist and drags him to the floor. This is a clear foul and the referee decided this met the criteria of a DOGSO challenge. Given that the Celtic player would have been central, unchallenged and clean through on goal, I believe this was also a DOGSO challenge.
Verdict: Correct decision.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 3
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 90th Score At Time 1-3
Incident Turnbull scores for Celtic Outcome Goal to Celtic Evidence (2) St. Johnstone 1-4 Celtic | Unbeatable Celtic With Strong Away Display |cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 4:45
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Turnbull scores from a free kick
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic
A free kick is a rolled a short distance to Turnbull who hits a low first shot through a wall of players and finds the bottom corner. There appears to a question mark over a possible offside from a Celtic player in the sea of bodies that could have impacted on the sight & ability of the goalkeeper to save the effort. However, a quick review of the video replay shows as the initial shot is struck, the Celtic player in the box is just onside.
Verdict: Correct decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
One is left to ponder the reaction had Jota been booked for a dive in the penalty area amongst the faithful reporters of Scottish football?
In terms of impact on the expected points picture, all square in love and war.
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 2.41 MORE expected points due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 6.53 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points and 25 goals after 25 matches.