Honest Mistakes - Weeks 12 and 13
Bringing us up to date with the big calls reviewed from Match Week 12 and 13 in the SPFL.
Despite VAR, there remains uncertainty over the big calls for reasons of inconsistency and people being unsure of the protocols and procedures.
As ever, the Yorkshire Whistler is here to help.
The impact of that call being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
29/10/22 The Rangers vs Aberdeen
Incident 1
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 59th
Incident Ball hits Duk in the penalty area Outcome Penalty to TRFC Evidence Rangers 4-1 Aberdeen | The Gers secure an emphatic comeback win at Ibrox | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:55
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball hits Duk
Initial on field decision: Penalty to Rangers
Ball clearly hits Duk accidentally so the VAR review here is deciding if the accidental contact has made the defenders body shape unnaturally bigger when the position of arm is not justifiable specific to that situation.
For me, the arm comes out as the defender reacts to the bounce of the ball and unfortunately for him, he mis judges the ball movement and ends up flicking the ball in a different direction with his arm. I cannot justify this movement as natural and feel penalty decision is correct.
Verdict: Correct decision to award penalty
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
22/10/22 Livingston vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Willie Collum Game Minute 82nd
Incident Shinnie blocks a cross in the penalty area Outcome Penalty to Celtic Evidence Livingston 0-3 Celtic | Hoops Restore Four Point Lead At The Top of The Table | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:42
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball hits Shinnie in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic and yellow card shown to Shinnie
Celtic player fires in a cross and it’s blocked by Shinnie but after review handball is given.
Given the proximity of defender to ball when it is struck, element of sympathy towards Shinnie here. It’s not a deliberate handball at all, but you can see he raises his hands in front of his chest whilst going for a low block with his foot.
I cannot justify this arm movement as natural for this specific movement and so feel the penalty for hand ball and yellow card for preventing a promising attack is right.
ADDENDUM:
My opinion given how close the ball was to the goal when the cross was made is that this should have been a 2nd yellow card offence and red card for second caution shown.
Verdict: Correct decision to award penalty. Incorrect decision not to issue a YC.
Expected Points
Outcome
ADDENDUM - Shinnie had already been booked and therefore should have received a second yellow card.
Celtic -0.35 xPts
05/11/22 Celtic vs Dundee Utd
Incident 1
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 12th
Incident Bernabei blocks Fletcher shot Outcome Penalty to Dundee Utd; YC to Bernabei Evidence Celtic 4-2 Dundee United | Astonishing last minute Celtic comeback! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:02
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Ball hits Bernabei in box
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Dundee Utd and yellow card shown to Bernabei
Cross comes into Celtic box, hits the head of two Dundee Utd players before ricocheting onto an already in flight Bernabei.
I found this decision baffling to be honest. Even in slow motion I cannot question Bernabei’s body shape here as he jumps to win the header. He is literally less than a yard from the Dundee Utd players and can do nothing as has zero reaction time to respond to the second header.
I therefore feel his body shape and arm movement at the time of the accidental hand ball are perfectly naturally and cannot understand why the on-field referee was recommended to review this incident as a clear and obvious error. It was not.
Verdict: Incorrect decision to award the hand ball and issue the yellow card
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.47 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The handball law in particular seems to be being applied inconsistently resulting in a slew of penalties, and non-penalties in some cases.
Such inconsistency should result in a random distribution of penalties across all the teams in the SPFL.
Ok.
With the “baffling” Dundee United penalty, a change to the overall xPts picture for the season:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 1.08 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 2.27 LESS.
A swing of 3.35 xPts. (Note amended to account for the Shinnie non sending off versus Celtic)
Celtic led by seven points after 13 matches.