Honest Mistakes: Week Twelve

And those that remain shall boooo!

League matches have been sparse in the busy calendar, but as domestic football resumed, Brendan Rodgers took his calm and measured side to Heart of Midlothian whilst troubled The Rangers hosted Dundee United.

The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

23/11/24 The Rangers vs Dundee Utd

Incident 1

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 45th

Score At Time: 0-1

Incident: Propper scores for TRFC

Outcome: Goal disallowed for handball by Barron in the build-up.

Evidence: Rangers 1-1 Dundee United | Dalby Goal Secures United A Point At Ibrox | William Hill Premiership

At 1:14

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on-field decision: Goal to Rangers but then disallowed by VAR for handball by Barron

Barron crosses the ball into box which is headed home by his teammate but prior to hitting the cross, the ball bounces up and hits his arm, which assists his control before he whips the ball in.

Even though this contact is accidental, the right arm is extended high enough to be deemed unnaturally large body shape and not justifiable for the attacker's situation. He’s running and gains an advantage by the accidental handball contact and so VAR is right to take penalise this contact and disallow the goal.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

23/11/24 Hearts vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 90th

Score At Time: 1-3

Incident: Forrest is challenged by Grant in the box

Outcome: Penalty to Celtic.

Evidence: Hearts 1-4 Celtic | Celtic Score FOUR To Extend Lead! | William Hill Premiership

At 4:12

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on-field decision: Penalty to Celtic

Grant cuts inside his marker, central and inside the box. The Hearts player stretches his right leg to block the ball but appears only to succeed in seeing his right knee collide with the Celtic forward's knee and a penalty is awarded. A straightforward decision for me, clear contact on the man, nothing on the ball.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

It is almost becoming a pattern whereby the refereeing performances in the big games seem to be improving with few material errors.

Maybe Willie Collum’s increased transparency with officials’ audio under public scrutiny has a positive effect?

A long way to go.

This leaves the overall position thus:

Celtic have 0.46 MORE expected points, and The Rangers also have 0.46 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, no “advantage” for either team.

Celtic lead by 11 points after 12 matches. (Note to self: when do we include Aberdeen matches?)