Honest Mistakes: Week Nine
The latest round of SPFL fixtures saw Celtic take on Heart of Midlothian whilst the latest Ibrox Saviour saw his carefully selected charges meet Hibernian.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
SPFL Game Week Nine
21/10/23 The Rangers vs Hibernian
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 45th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Raskin scores for TRFC Outcome Goal to TRFC Evidence (4) Rangers 4-0 Hibernian | Philippe Clement Starts His Reign With A Bang! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:19
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Raskin scores for Rangers
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Rangers
In the build up to this goal, there is a challenge on the Hibs player and a question of a foul committed against the defender, which if awarded would have seen the goal chalked off.
I’ve watched this back several times and in all honesty changed my own opinion at least twice - so clearly this is a subjective decision with some people saying it will be a foul and some saying no foul.
In real time it appears the Rangers player making the challenge, clips the back of the left heel of the Hibs player first and so a foul could have been expected.
However, on the last replay presented, which arguably gives the clearest angle, it appears the Rangers player actually just plays the ball first before his foot then catches the Hibs player first. So, from this angle it would appear the No foul decision would have been correct.
Verdict: After some deliberation, I support the decision not to award the foul. CORRECT decision
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
22/10/23 Hearts vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 46th Score At Time 0-2
Incident Kyogo goes down in the box under challenge from Cochrane Outcome Penalty to Celtic Evidence (4) Heart of Midlothian 1-4 Celtic | A Japanese Hat-Trick! | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 2:01
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Kyogo goes down under the challenge from Cochrane.
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic
Ball is played into 18 yard box and Kyogo attempts to stretch for the ball ahead of Cochrane the defender. In real time there appears to be contact and the ref duly awards in Kyogo’s favour.
However, on reflection, I feel the Celtic forward is fortunate here to win the foul.
It appears he jumps to stretch for the ball but actually he jumps into the approaching Cochrane who makes no motion to tackle Kyogo. For me, Kyogo is trying to win penalty by putting his leg into the path of the oncoming defender.
Again, as the previous decision, there is contact and I feel this is subjective decision, not clearly and obviously wrong - hence the VAR team felt this didn’t warrant an on-field review.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. For me no foul committed and if the referee had been recommended on field review, he would probably have changed his mind.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic +0.2 xPts – remember – the xPts given the game state (Celtic were 2-0 up in the 46th minute) is calculated relative to the probability of scoring the resulting penalty which is 79%.
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
A nice insight this week into how subjective decisions can be in football. What makes a referee fall one way or the other when they are so marginal? Sometimes it is just the best available evidence.
But it is Celtic who benefitted from a close call this week, and a rare disagreement from the Yorkshire Whistler in this season. Are the refs getting better?
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.16 less points and Celtic 0.2 more than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The refereeing calls have given Celtic an estimated 0.36 xPts advantage so far this season.
Celtic lead by seven points after nine matches.