Honest Mistakes Week Four: The Certainty Lie
Derby week and whilst the outcome brooked no debate, the refereeing decision-making delivered uncertainty.
The first Derby of the season saw Celtic overpower The Rangers 3-0 in score but a whole lot of post-match pain, however one measures that.
Still, with John Beaton and Andrew Dallas in residence, it wouldn’t be incident-free.
The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
01/09/24 Celtic vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee: John Beaton
Game Minute: 12th
Score At Time: 0-0
Incident: Kyogo scores for Celtic.
Outcome: Goal ruled out for offside after VAR review.
At 0:00
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: Goal disallowed after VAR review for offside decision
Celtic break the lines early on in the game and a cross from the home right-sided attacker is slotted home by Kyogo. VAR under review makes the call to go with an incredibly tight offside call from the initial pass in the build-up.
I am led to believe there has been some scrutiny over the precise accuracy of how the lines have been applied and, whilst this certainly merits further investigation from those parties with the relevant technical expertise and resources, I prefer to ‘stay in my lane’ so to speak, and limit my commentary purely to the decision itself.
To the naked eye this, like so many offside decisions we have reviewed over previous seasons, is incredibly tight and mere millimetres are at play in making the final onside/offside decision call. Personally, in real-time without the benefit of video or freeze frame technology, the Celtic man looks level, and this was mirrored by the assistant referee’s initial decision to keep his flag down.
However once VAR make the call that this a fractional offside offence, I cannot provide any rationale to say this review was clearly wrong.
It is the totally separate discussion to comment on the pinpoint accuracy parameters and how said technology is implemented to arrive at this decision and is best left to other people rather than myself!
Verdict: CORRECT decision ( it is an incredibly tight call granted either way)
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 2
Referee: John Beaton
Game Minute: 74th
Score At Time: 2-0
Incident: Souttar blocks Forrest shot.
Outcome: No decision.
Evidence: Provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on-field decision: No foul following VAR review
Forrest cuts inside and gets his shot off, Souttar puts his body in the way of the shot and there is a shout of handball.
From the clip presented, the angle is not the best. Souttar’s arms do come out slightly but not to the extent that screams ‘unnaturally large body shape, in the context of that passage of play. I also cannot be certain if the ball hits the arms or more central stomach/torso area.
Therefore, in my opinion, there is no clear enough evidence to suggest this call by the on-field referee was clearly wrong, so am comfortable with the decision of no foul committed.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 3
Referee: John Beaton
Game Minute: 74th
Score At Time: 2-0
Incident: Engels goes down in the box when trying to shoot.
Outcome: No decision.
Evidence: Provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on-field decision: No foul was committed
In the same passage of play as the above Souttar block, from that rebound, Engels then attempts to get his shot off, whilst a covering defender slides in to make the challenge.
The defender stretches in, with his left leg rather than right and so has to stretch across the Celtic man. This is an instinctive lunge to make the block but upon watching the replay, I don’t see him make any contact on the ball. Instead, he makes contact with Engels standing leg and knocks him to the floor.
Understandable, that the on-field referee might have not seen the incident clearly, in frantic passage play, with plenty of players in close proximity. However, I suspect if the referee had been recommended to review this particular incident, a penalty kick for a careless tackle would have been the expected outcome.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Penalty kick the expected outcome
Expected Points Outcome: Celtic -0.08 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The offside Kyogo goal has sparked much debate and my thanks to those who have attempted to educate me on camera technology, cambers, angles, perspectives, topography, Mercator projection, calibration, physics and why would you ever remake “Deliverance”?
I’m a simple soul. I’ve asked for examples where the squnitiness of the vertical line applied to Souttar is matched from e.g. EPL matches with more sophisticated technology. Still waiting.
What also appears to be true is that the technology as applied even the expensive versions, cannot as it stands make a definitive distinction in the most marginal cases given the speed of the players. We are being sold certainty when in fact there is an inherent margin of error. The obvious answer would be that if the margin of error is surpassed, the on-field decision stands.
That Andrew Dallas, with all his background and baggage in the context of this fixture, would err on the side of overruling the on-field officials is another variable best left to the sociologists.
The two penalty incidents pre-Callum McGregor third goal were ignored by Sky TV live and by the BBC and SPFL in their highlight’s packages. Odd but perhaps not surprising given the third goal followed almost immediately.
In terms of the overall position:
Celtic have 0.16 LESS expected points due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
Celtic lead by five points after four matches.